Pacquiao vs Cotto, 11/14

Let me first say as some of you know I am a huge boxing fan, and Manny Pacquiao has been my favorite fighter for years now.

That said, I am a little worried about this fight with Cotto, and honestly didn't understand why Pac would take this fight to begin with. I just don't know why you would risk fighting a guy like Cotto when you have a payday with Mayweather waiting around the corner, especially considering he has nothing more to prove. Cotto has a hell of a lot to prove. He has always been a very good boxer and only has lost once, which was a very controversial loss. The loss was to Antonio Margarito, and if you didn't catch that fight, it was an absolute war. Margarito just wouldn't go down, even after taking many brutal shots and ultimately KO'd Cotto in the 11th. Cotto was ahead on all judges score cards in that fight too. Well, after Margarito's next fight he was found to have illegal plaster on his hand wraps, which in a fight is a very large advantage. Cotto's face looked like it went through a meat grinder, while Margarito really didn't look that bad, even though it seemed he took more shots. In my mind there is no doubt he had the plaster on his hands for that fight as well.

Now, I've been watching 24/7 on HBO (great, great show) and after seeing the first two episodes I am a little more concerned for Pac then I was before. I know they edit shit, and make things look different from what they are sometimes, but one thing I am convinced of is that Pac had a horrible training camp for this fight, and might be taking it a little too light. In other words, he might be getting too big for his britches thinking he's the greatest, something that I've seen many times in the past with other boxers.

For some reason he decided to hold most of his camp in the Philippines, and there was distraction after distraction. The country suffered two major typhoons within a week of each other, and Pac was there for the first one. The amount of stress and distractions involved with training over there definitely affected his training. Because of the typhoon he was unable to do his usual training in the hills like usual for conditioning and was forced to train in areas with an audience, also a big distraction. And also there seems to be a bit of a "I know it all now" attitude with Pac and he doesn't seem to be listening to Roach (his trainer) as much as he did in the past. In one of the episodes of 24/7 he gave major attitude to Roach, something I've never seen before, and also he was going easy in sparring sessions.

He finally got out of the Philippines earlier this week, and arrived in LA to finish up his training, only 2 weeks before the fight.

If I had to predict this fight I would think it is going to go the distance. I hope I'm wrong, but I've always been pretty good about picking fights, especially boxers I've watched a lot. The one thing that Pac has in this fight is speed, and that could be the X factor here. Cotto has never fought anyone of Pacs caliber, and he very well could end up looking sloppy, but he will still brawl and is perfectly capable of doing some real damage to Pac.

I just looked at the line for this fight, and it is +225 Cotto, -265 Pacquiao. I'm starting to think there might be some good value in the Cotto bet, especially if you can find it at a higher line. Probably best to stay away, but if you're looking for action this might be a decent value bet for some of you degens.

Where's my boy JMM, very interested to get his take on this.

Honestly have Pac and Mayweather even talked about a fight? Mayweather is notorious for ducking people in their primes, the pay day for that fight would probably break records though. To top it Floyd will probably be announcing it as his last fight. Don't look for this fight for atleast a year or two.

Pac just came out a week ago and said Mayweather doesn't want to fight him.

http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/boxing/ne...tory?id=4607169



"I don't think it's going to happen," Pacquiao said. "I'm sure he doesn't want to fight."

Come on though, I would think for Floyd the money will be too much to pass up. Pretty risky to wait so long and risk a loss by the other party. A year sounds reasonable... 2 not so much.

Also, I wasn't saying he shouldn't fight now, I was just questioning the decision to fight Cotto. But, his people know a lot more than me, so...

Pacman not listening to Freddie is troubling.

I hope Pac crushes, but I wouldn't bet on it at -265.

If you're gonna bet the fight, Cotto is the only way to go, but I don't think he will win. I just don't think he's quite the same anymore. I thought he lost his last fight to Joshua Clottey, and even if he deserved the decision he looked far less sharp than he used to. I now think that Mayweather would be likely to beat either of these guys, and I used to think just the opposite. I'm rooting for Pacquiao to win this one because Pac/May is the biggest fight in the sport and would be good for the game.

Did any of you guys hear the following? It's some satellite radio host named RA the Rugged Man totally owning the fuck out of Floyd Mayweather in an interview. It's fucking awesome. He's the first guy who ever said all the things to Floyd that need to be said.

Good post Vegas.


I agree with what you're saying. Pacquiao is amazing, but this is a bad fight for him. I'm glad it's on because I think it's going to be a great fight, but you're right his camp was just terrible. The only question is that Cotto hasn't seemed the same after that Margarito beat down. There is absolutely no doubt that Margarito used plaster in his wraps for that fight, and Cotto took a beating that hasn't been seen since Tex Cobb.


I can't stand Mayweather, and think he's been bad for the sport. I would like to see that fight though.

Yeah, it's very possible that Cotto getting knocked out badly by a guy with plaster in his gloves may have ruined his career. What a great fucking sport.

Great interview.

For me, this has been one of the hardest fights to pick in a long, long time. Both fighters have so many things working to their advantage.

On one hand, you have Pacquiao, p4p number one, coming off of huge wins over Oscar, and Ricky Hatton. But just how huge are those wins? And are we letting those wins cloud our judgment? The Oscar fight, imo, was a joke. Oscar was clearly drained out of his mind, and was literally a walking zombie in there. It was clear from the middle of the first round that he had no chance of winning. Ricky Hatton on the other hand, was tailor made for the Pacman. You just don't go lunging in head first against a fighter with the power of Pac. I think many people are picking Pac to win THIS fight, based on THOSE fights, and I think that's a big mistake. Think back, before the Hatton/Oscar fights. If I had came here and told you Pac was not only going to fight Cotto, but he was going to be the favorite to win, you'd have told me I was fucking crazy. I'm not taking anything away from Pac for those wins, they were great. He had to move up in weight, and looked good doing it. But just consider what he was up against.

Pac does look like he's carried his power, and speed up in weight really well. And I think if he can weather the early storm from Cotto, he can win this fight. It will be clear that Pac is the faster fighter from the 1st round, and his ability to use his speed, land his punches, get out of the way, and don't get caught trading with Cotto could tell the tale of this fight. Simply put, if Cotto has no answer for Pac's speed, then he's fucked.

On the other and, there is Cotto. There's still the question on everyone's mind "Did Margarito ruin Cotto?". Plaster or no plaster, Cotto took a beating in that fight until he was unable to take anymore punishment, ultimately costing him his perfect record, and a tko loss to Marg. I'm not willing to debate the plaster issue with anyone, because all we know is that he tried to use it against Mosley. None of us know about the Cotto fight, and we will never know. In Cotto's fight with Joshua Clottey, Cotto didn't look great. It could be that he's a bit "shot" from the Marg fight, but you name me one fighter who has looked good against Clottey. He's one of those guys that just make fighters look bad. Cotto showed me something in that fight though. He showed that he can fight hurt. He had a horrible gash over his eye, that most certainly effected his vision. But he fought on, when a lot of fighters would have quit. Cotto has a ton of heart, and you can't teach that.

Cotto has options in this fight. A lot of people will tell you Cotto should try and "Marquez" Pacquiao. Box him, and counter punch his way to a victory. I think this is a horrible game plan, and if he tries this, he will either have to adjust, or taste defeat. Cotto does NOT have the counter punching ability of Juan Manuel, and Pacquiao will pick him apart if he goes this route. I would like to see Cotto come out and apply pressure on Pac from the opening bell, try to hurt him early, take him off his game plan. We've never really had to see Pac adjust his style, because he's usually the more dominant fighter. Cotto needs to smother Pac, work the body, and try to get Pac on the ropes. Pacquiao won't be comfortable on the ropes, and it will be a perfect opportunity for Cotto to land body shots. One good liver shot from Cotto can end a fight. If Pac can't take a TRUE welterweight's power, then he's fucked.

If you put a gun to my head, I'd pick Cotto by mid round KO/TKO.

"A great big man always beats a great little man" Cotto will probably weigh around 158 when he enters the ring. Pac will probably be close to 10 pounds less.

Floyd hasn't really waited for anyone to be past prime. It's not his fault Marquez was in his mid 30's when he decided he wanted to jump 2 weight classes chasing a payday. I'm not going to say Mayweather hasn't passed up one fight, for another fight from time to time, but he hasn't ducked a fighter, waited for them to be past prime, then offered them a fight. This hasn't happened.

And yes, there's already talks of May/Pac for 2010. Possibly at the new Cowboy's stadium.

How would you like to be Cotto, with all the talks of Pac/May, like Pacquiao's already beaten Cotto. Motivation like a mother fucker.

Mayweather fails at interviews.

Oh, and Pac and Roach always butt heads in training camp. I'm telling you, it happened before the Oscar fight, the Hatton fight, and now it's happening again. Pacman is a professional, and he is training like one. If he loses this fight, it won't be because of his camp.

Great responses.

I watched the Cotto/Clottey fight last night. One thing that did jump out to me was that Cotto was very slow and flat footed. Post Margarito hangover? If he looks like that again he will surely get picked apart, Pacs speed will just be too much. The real big question in this fight to me is power. Will Pacs power be somewhat devastating against the bigger man, and will Cotto's power end up being too much for Pac in the later rounds.

And JMM makes some GREAT points, especially the one about would he be a fav if this was before the De la hoya and Hatton beat downs. I highly doubt it.

I agree. I just don't think Cotto looked like the same fighter. There have been countless examples when great fighters take a massive beating (win or lose), and never look the same again. Not that they don't go on to do well, but they're never the same fighter. Not saying this has happened with Cotto, but he took so much punishment it was terrible. And please don't tell me Margarito didn't have plaster. Did you even look at his face after?

I was trying to see if he had any speech problems during the HBO series, but really didn't notice it. He seemed pretty sharp. I don't like Roach. They had a the perfect game plan with Hatton, but he's missed badly with others. Roach and Pac may have had problems in the past, and its been okay, but they had many more distractions this camp.

Before the Margarito fight, I would've strongly favored Cotto, but not sure now.


And Mayweather has ducked almost everyone that was at the top. He won't fight anyone unless he feels he has the edge or the other fighter has lost his edge. As he said himself, safe = payday. The radio guy made a great point comparing him to Roy Jones later in his career, and talking about Ali, Hearns, Leonard, Oscar, etc.

You guys HAVE to consider that Cotto was fighting Joshua Clottey though, seriously. Not one person has EVER looked good fighting Clottey, and Cotto was basically fighting with one eye for the better part of that fight. That's all I'm saying. Before you can say "this isn't the same Cotto, that Margarito beating must have really took it out of him", you need to consider who he's fighting.

And don't try to tell me you need plaster to bust a guy up the way Cotto was busted up. I've seen MUCH worse.

Again, maybe there's been more going on this camp for Pac's team than in his previous fights, but as I said, he's a pro, he's training like a pro. Pac is ready. If he loses, it won't be from lack of training.

I never said Mayweather hadn't avoided some key match ups with some key guys. I said he's never waited until fighters are past prime to challenge them. And that's the truth.

I totally agree with your Clottey theory, but like Vegas said he showed amazing heart, but just looked flat from the start.

And yeah, I've seen worse, but with guys that are way outclassed or guys that had a huge weight disadvantage (or any Gatti fight - lol). Cotto was dominating that fight, and got beat down. Literally. Look at Lujan's face/ear after his fight with Margarito, and look at Cotto's face. You can't tell me he didn't have something in his wraps. You think he fought clean up until his last fight and all of a sudden thought he needed something in his wraps??? Come on.







Just look at the swelling and buising DURING the fight.

Yeah, I understand your point. And if you're asking if I think Margarito cheated? Sure I do. I think everyone does. I just pretty much let it go, because it's something that we will never know for sure. So I treat that loss on Cotto's record as if it were any other loss, for any other fighter. Because I can't prove that he was being hit with loaded wraps.

I agree you have to take into account it was Clottey. BTW, he acted like such a bitch in that fight, with the slip and then the punch in the back of the head in the last round...lol Speaking about the slip... How do you go from barely being able to get up, then barely being able to walk, to dancing around the ring just a minute or two later.... Just seemed pretty weak and fake to me, but whatever.

Anyway, yes Clottey makes EVERYONE look sloppy, and yes Cotto had a horrible cut over his left eye for the last 7 rounds of that fight. I really wasn't looking so much at how sloppy Cotto ended up looking, but rather his foot, hand speed and power. None of which seemed good enough to beat Pacquiao, well foot and hand speed anyway. Is he the same fighter that beat Mosley? I don't think he is now a punch drunk/shot fighter because of the Margarito war, but did it have some lasting physical effects on him? The Clottey fight did have some similarities towards the later rounds, shades of the Margarito fight.

Something else to consider... Think back to Barrerra, Morales, Marquez... none of these guys had blazing speed or power either, but they all were still able to counter and be very effective vs Pac. I would imagine Cotto is, regardless of how he looked last fight, more powerful than all 3, and definitely as skilled as Barrerra and Morales. I guess the real big question is, has Pacquiao improved immensely since those fights? Were the wins vs De la hoya and Hatton inflated?

And also, you're most likely right about Pac being a pro and regardless of how his camp went he will be ready. Thing is to me, this is such a tough fight for him you'd like to see everything go smoothly (yes I know we're talking about boxing...lol).

I agree that Cotto looked slower against Clottey than he did against Margarito, but I'm not so sure it's because of the punishment he took at the hands of Margarito. I mean, if I fought a guy with absolutely NO head movement, that comes straight forward and walks into my punches, I imagine my shots would look a lot sharper, crisper, and faster than they would against a good defensive fighter such as Clottey. Cotto didn't throw the fast combinations against Clottey like he did against Margarito, because the openings weren't there. And when the openings were there, Clottey did a pretty good job of countering and backing Cotto off. I do agree that the Clottey/Cotto fight had shades of the Margarito fight though. There were times when Clottey started to land his uppercuts, that it looked almost identical. If Clottey had any kind of real power, who knows, maybe he would have stopped Cotto. I know this though, if Cotto shows up in prime shape, physically and mentally, Pac is in serious trouble.