1/3 NL Hold'em, Changes in game and how do you handle this?

I took a good two or three year break from playing live. I've always played typically around the limits of 1/3. When I use to play I was pretty good and could pretty much always figure out what was going on at the table. Pretty much the only all in I would lose would be preflop when my AA got cracked or another sick beat boat vs. boat, etc... I went to the casino last weekend and sat with $120. I immediately noticed how much it sucks being out of the game for so long. Your natural instinct isn't there anymore. I understand it'll take some time and most likely money to get that back, but there has been a big shift in the game also.

When I use to play people would raise preflop with KQ and 88 and hands like that. Now everybody seems to play a loose passive game and will limp with almost anything and then if you raise they will just call. Lets suppose you have AK and the flop comes out K 8 5 and you make a nice size bet and get repopped? How are you suppose to figure out if one of the donkeys limped with 88 or KQ? Or should you not even worry about that and just take it to showdown pretty much everytime, because more times than not they will have KQ rather than 88?

It just seems like the loose passive play just leaves lots of players lurking to flop 2 pair with marginal hands or hit a set. Playing limit that would be fine, but it worries me in NL because it only takes the one hand to clean you out.

Im not exactly sure what to tell you......

I think almost neccessarily, if the shift is as you described, youre simply going to get beat for your whole stack much more often.

Obviously, you can throw away AK in spots like youve described and wait to flop sets, but then youre giving up way too much EV against guys that are in there with random hands.

My only advice would be to limp MUCH more with hands that you wouldve raised with in the past...... but once you flop a hand...... youre going to have to get the money in most of the time.

By not raising pre-flop...... youre probably giving up a lot of EV also. You have to pick your poison here.

I think based on the way your post 'sounds'........ it feels like your somewhat risk averse to me.

Assuming thats the case and you dont want to consider playing something else, id limit my exposure pre-flop quite a bit more than you used to.....

Hope that helps a little.

I play in the exact game you are talking about at my local room. You already answered your own question. If one of these limp call donks is repopping you, then what do you think he has? I consider my handreading ability to be very avg, but a lot of people in these games are rediculously easy to read. Look for super obvious beginner tells. Hands shaking on a monster, very splashy "intimidating" looking bets on bluff. Widen your range before the flop and stay out of trouble after the flop. Never play 2nd pair. Just chase your reasonably priced draws and jam with a strong top pair. They will let you know if you are behind. I guarantee it. If you are patient enough, it's pretty easy to beat.

I can understand where you are coming from as I have been trying to tell friends of mine for years the LIVE NL game has 'evolved'/changed but just could never quite explain HOW it changed or why it subtly effects profits. Particularly the lower limits but it has started to trickle up the scale as well. I don't play higher than 5-10NL so I don't know if it is true for all NL games but I did notice the same sort of game last two seasons in High Stakes Poker as well (basically irrelevant based on the sample size of hands shown but you get my drift).

I have a good friend who has been playing live 1-2 NL in Vegas for 6 years now and also did 2-5NL for first 2-3 years of those six. He is one of the tightest nits I know of and has VERY little gamble in him. He used to be the only one passively playing at the table. He would do pretty well for himself each year in 1-2/2-5 just playing rock NL poker. In the times I would watch or sit with him I would be amazed he would even get any action but he always did no matter how long he sat there waiting for the near nuts. Some fish would not be paying attention and he would stack someone. THAT WAS THEN.

In the last 2 years I have witnessed him be a completely different emotional state as he can't seem to beat the game anymore. He had his first losing year in 07 and it seemed like he could do no right in his sessions a majority of the time. He is at the point where it has worn him down and he now doesn't play as much or is on tilt when he does play, bitching about the players.

What I have observed though is that nothing comes easy for him anymore when he does have a monster AND his radar has been off more often than it has been before. Just like you said he zigs when should be zagging. I can't quantify it but I DO beleive this new limp-passive NL game is a big part of this all as well as the fact that many more now know how to play NL better. A combo of both. NL changed but he still tries to beat the game with Ultra-tight-passive play. The limpfests now seemed to have caused the low-limit NL games to play like casino-table games. Like you said he will have AK and a k84 flop will throw him off. One time he will bet and get raised big on that flop and he will fold SHOWING an AK disgustingly (thinking he is making a great laydown) and some idiot will show a KQ. Next time he will see a AK8 flop and he will get it all in and it turns out YES, he did have pocket 8's.

The increased variance of the game seems to just be making the cardrooms more money as now so many players are willing to "gambool". Nut-flush-draws are now GOLD on the flop to most players and they will get their money in where as before a big bet could get them to lay down. Many MANY now play a deceptive random LAG game. They will call with KQ one hand but 15 minutes later you will find out they raised mid position with 67 suited.

Theoretically this should make the game easier to beat in long run *BUT* you will now be a slave to variance and sometimes odds take a long time to become true. Just because you may be a 2-1 or 3-1 favorite, those can still lose 6-7, 10 times in a row for your WHOLE stack! It becomes hard to bet someone off a hand by not giving odds because of the capped flavor of the game causes many to be at point -of-no-return too often (or purposely shortstacking has become popular online). But despite all this, you then add in that players now sit in NL and have experience. They may not be able to shuffle their chips like a veterean, but they MAY even have more experience and hands played than YOU because of online. They can read bet patterns good now, etc. My friend seems to get not near as much action on his good hands like he used to and his close hands he is getting played back with those 2-1's and such now. Running bad in this current environment can be devestating.

Sorry for the long post, but it is hard to explain all this in writing. I have started to believe that casino cardrooms have finally gotten what they want: Max rake in every hand because of all the loose-passive action causing the handcuffed capped players to be all in more often. Those fishy capped players also can't lose as much vs good players so they will come back often and can comfortably have odds to draw more often as well. Causing us old local pros fits as they laugh it up how they "had pot odds to call and got there"...


I still think Limit Hold'em is tougher to beat in long run though. But if you can run hot in todays NL games you can make a ton still (live NL at least, online has probably become too tough and unbeatable for large majority)

AK on that flop... and 40 BBs.. Since you are calling others donkeys I assumed you raised preflop with your AK. You pretty much just get it allin from my limited understanding of NL unless you suspect there might be multiway action. Thats the nice thing about playing short stacked, your decision really isn't that hard. It'd be a lot harder if your stack wasn't 40 BBs and something like 80.

Reading Theory of NL Hold Em and Professional NL Hold Em:Vol 1 helped me alot inadjusting to these games. You pretty much have to try to use math and getting people to pay the worse possible odds possible when you have a huge hand. They will call, anyways. It's not like in NLHE where you almost need to slowplay at times because you may not that that big of a hand at that big of a moment.

Limp-reraising is key these games, especially if you have alot of pot juicers in there who raise in position or with hands like K10.

Read about REM and Pot-to-stack Ratio on 2+2 and in the books above. They'll give you a good simple math based tool to use where playing these loose passive games, especially since its more of a game of luck than in higher limit/deep stack games where skill and bluffing/reading hands is more of a factor.

You'll get a cookie cutter answer from alot of higher limit pros if you ask them IRL about low limit NL games and they will say stay selectivly aggro and play tight regarldess of variables and flop textures that may hinder profitability and playability of a hand that you'd typicaly raise PF with (TT,JJ and QQ for example). Flops don't play as easily as they do in tournaments where you are WAY more shallow in BB's compared to Cash play where you are on adverage buying in for as much as 200BB's.

When I sit down to play a NL cash game I typicaly don't mix it up with anyone and play for pots larger than my hand value since one pair hands don't play well for stacks vs unknown players. So first and foremost you need to try and gague what eachplayers folding threshold and tendancys are. Does this player overvalue overpairs in raised pots? How does he respond to scare cards on the turn/river (does he shut down and try and check down the hand cheaply, give up, fire back..etc) Is he capable of a 3 bet bluff? How often does he flat call a raise...in position or from an out of position? Does he defend his blind with a raise or a flat call......I can list tons of more things I am trying to pickup on a player but you get the general idea. From gathering all this information it generaly allows me to play a more snug and comfortable game which may seem like super tight vs some players or spewy and lag-tardish vs others but its profitable to me and I am fine with that.

About one pair hands vs loose-passive players who have a wide range you need to control the pot size, this is key. Why try and get in a pissing contest on the flop with one pair in a raised pot if he flat calls your re-raise, is he THAT cleaver that he is gonna call a re-raise on the flop with KQ or less? Ok, say he DOES what is he going to do on the turn, fire out? More than likely not so you need to check behind to control the pot size. If he fires out on the river this is where its make or break time and you need to re-evaluate. Is he doing this as a blocker/stop bet where he is naming the price for his hand at showdown or a valuebet for a set. If he has a set and the bet is small he lost a shit-ton of value on the turn/flop and I generaly grin as I call the bet and table AK and say "Well, I lost the minimum" and if he has KQ you need to think to yourself that you typicaly aren't getting called if you re-pop him on the river by a hand that you can beat but i've seen worse at the lower limits.

Build big pots with big hands and keep pots small with small hands, if you remember that you should do just fine.

it's easy to play against the loose passives tho. raise your hands big against limpers. (this includes JTs KQo ATo) cont. bet flops. limp EP with suited connectors and small pairs. raise those in late position against the limpers. it's all about position multi way pots.