*** Official Blackjack/Card Counting thread ***

If you play blackjack and are tired of losing money, read this thread.

Note that the information here will not automatically make you a winning blackjack player. Note that showing a profit in blackjack can sometimes take a long time, as the edge is small and the variance is high. However, you can greatly improve your odds in blackjack by just taking a small amount of time to learn the basics of card counting.

First, learn basic strategy. Basic strategy is the "correct" strategy that nearly everyone (at least everyone besides complete morons) bases their play upon. You know... stuff like hitting 12 versus a dealer's 2 or 3, but not against 4 through 6.

Next, read the following article that teaches you how to count cards:

http://www.bj21.com/bj_reference/pages/9541.html

(Do not read further until you have done the above.)

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Next, memorize the following exceptions to basic strategy based upon the count (in order of importance):

1) If the true count is at least +3, take insurance against an ace (regardless of what hand you hold).

2) If the true count is zero or positive, stand on 16 versus a dealer 10.

3) If the true count is at least +4, stand on 15 versus a dealer 10.

4) If the true count is at least +2, stand on 12 versus a dealer 3.

5) If the true count is at least +3, stand on 12 versus a dealer 2.

6) If the true count is -1 or less, hit on 13 versus a 2.

7) If the true count is zero or negative, hit on 12 versus a 4.

There are many other modifications, but the above are the most important ones. If you don't want to memorize these, at least memorize #1 and #2, as they are easily the most important to gain edge. Keep in mind that I am also giving basic numbers here, and am not accounting for minor differences that occur when playing 6-deck shoe versus double-deck, etc.

Other strategy notes:

- Penetration (how far they deal before reshuffling) is very important. If they cut off more than 2 decks out of 6, or 1 out of 2, it is very difficult to play a +EV blackjack game, even if you are counting.

- The number of players matters. Try to get tables with few players, preferably one other person. Playing heads-up is great EV-wise, but bad in the sense that you get watched far more closely by the pit. If your table is full, your EV will go down, and you may not even be a favorite in a marginal game (i.e. mediocre penetration and/or mediocre rules).

- The rules matter. NEVER play the single deck where they pay 6:5 for blackjack. It is unbeatable. Also avoid any games where you can't double on any two cards. It is advisable, especially in shoe games, to only play games where you are allowed to double after splitting. It is always to the player's advantage to have the dealer stand on soft 17 (rather than hit it), but this is getting more difficult to find other than at high-end Vegas strip casinos. Don't obsess over the hit/stand soft 17 thing, but keep in mind that it makes a difference.

- Do not ever place gay sidebets on what cards will be dealt. The house has a HUGE edge on these.

- Stay true to yourself and be disciplined. It sucks when you slam out 5 big bets in a row when the count is high, lose all 5, and then the shuffle comes before you can get unstuck. It's tempting to keep firing big after the shuffle, but that move is -EV and will kill you in the long run if you don't get that impulse under control.

My next post will discuss the very important concept of "cover" -- i.e. making yourself NOT look like a counter.

Card Counting Cover

The biggest problem with card counting is that, while legal to do in the United States, it's against the house rules. Therefore, in all states but New Jersey, any casino can have you ejected from the blackjack game (or the casino itself) if they realize that you are counting.

Even worse, it is difficult to hide that you're a card counter. Playing winning blackjack unfortunately requires a rather obvious and predictable betting pattern that is easily recognized by a smart pit boss. Furthermore, deviating from this betting pattern will turn you into an overall -EV player, so while you probably won't be kicked out of the game, you'll be giving money to the casino instead!

There are, however, some things you can do to cover up what you're doing, who you are, and why you're playing. These are things I have noticed from personal experience, and many are quite effective. Keep in mind that you will still get kicked out for counting in many cases, but the below tips might be just enough to get you the benefit of the doubt....


1) Looks matter. Like everything in life, people stereotype you. Card counters have their own stereotype. The "typical" card counter is white, about 25-40 years old, playing alone (or with other counters), and has an "intellectual" look to him -- someone you'd expect to be good at math and/or computers. While many card counters don't look like this, this is the basic stereotype the pit bosses have in mind, and matching that description will increase the likelihood that you will get extra heat. Unfortunately, I fit this description perfectly, so it's important for me to try other things to turn the heat down a bit. Who doesn't look like a card counter? Any female, anyone over 50, anyone with an "urban" or thuggish look, and anyone who appears to be filthy rich. If you fit any of these descriptions, you are already at an advantage over other counters.

2) You are judged by the company you keep. Remember, you want to look like a typical gambler, not a calculating math nerd trying to take the casino's money. Card counters are not expected to bring their wife to watch them "work". That's something a casual gambler would do ("Hey honey, watch me play high stakes blackjack!") When I'm alone or with other guys, I get FAR more heat than when I'm with my girlfriend Miri (who is usually assumed to be my wife, given that I'm in my mid-30s.) It's also best not to play with other card counters, as your raising and lowering of bets will be nearly identical, and is a HUGE red flag. The good news: You are unlikely to run into any other capable card counters in a typical blackjack session.

3) Exception to #2: The "protection" trick. Say that I see Jim, an acquaintance I know through poker, walking the hallways of one of my favorite casinos. I tell Jim that I'm about to play blackjack, and Jim says, "Hey, I love blackjack! Let's go play together!" Unless Jim is a good card counter, which is unlikely, he's a GREAT asset to have -- possibly assuring that you won't get barred from the game no matter what you do. Casinos often will tolerate an evil to gain a greater good. If Jim is a -EV player and he's expected to lose more money than I am expected to win, most casinos will let us both stay in the game, figuring that throwing me out will cause Jim to leave, too. While I don't encourage using your close friends this way, ("Hey, good buddy, come play blackjack and lose a fortune so I can also play and not get any heat!"), I see no problem with piggybacking onto a player who is going to play anyway.

4) Talk up a storm. The worst thing you can do while card counting is to sit there quiet and emotionless as the hands unfold. Gamblers don't act like that. They are emotional, vibrant, and really into every card that's dealt. When I play blackjack, I like talking up each hand to the point where I'm annoying. Call for cards, comment on both good luck and bad, compliment your fellow players on their blackjacks and lucky draws, and pretty much don't keep your mouth shut. This accompishes two things: First, it makes you look like you couldn't be concentrating on the count with all the talking you're doing. Second, the talking itself distracts the dealer and pit boss from taking the time to assess the situation.

5) Don't be good at math. If you're asked what you do for a living, never answer, "Computer programmer", "Physicist", "Mathematician", "Engineer", or any other career that has a math basis to it. These careers are most likely to be those of card counters. Instead, answer something basic like, "I work in insurance", or "I manage a restaurant", or some other BS like that. Just have something prepared beforehand so you're not blindsided by a few questions. What if you're a pro poker player? Should you admit that? I used to think definitely not, but I've changed my mind somewhat. Most poker players are seen as sick gamblers, and not likely card counters. Still, I think you're safe to just pretend you have a conventional profession. Finally, don't show too much skill in being able to add up other people's hands too quickly. If the dealer squints at a hand of A-2-4-5-A-3-2, don't quickly blurt out, "That's 18." In fact, say the opposite, like, "Man, I can't even begin to figure out what that is!"

6) Wear your emotions on your sleeve. Be happy when you win, and high five the other players when the dealer busts unexpectedly. When you lose, play up your frustration. Complain how unlucky you are, how you always lose at this game, and how you can't figure out how the dealer always gets the better cards than you.

7) Take advantage of the "pissed off all-in bet". With the popularity nowadays of poker, the phrase "I'm all in" has become known to nearly everyone. If the count goes really high, and if you have been losing, you can place a bigger-than-usual maximum bet by grabbing your chip stack, shoving it all onto your betting spot, and announcing, "I'm all in!" This makes you look like a frustrated gambler rather than a card counter, yet you're getting big EV by putting up such a big bet in a highly positive situation. For example, say I've been spreading $50-$300, but have lost 3 hands in a row and now have $650 left. The true count is +7. I will shove my entire $650 onto the next hand, announce (seemingly pointlessly) "I'm all in", and rarely get much heat for it.

8) Know when to walk away. Know when to run. Unlike poker, you can't play blackjack for an unlimited amount of time in one session until you get even. At some point, you might get stuck enough to where coming all the way back to even will attract too much pit attention, and you'll get barred. This becomes a lose-lose situation, where you need to either walk away a loser or get banned from playing blackjack at that casino. Unless you don't plan upon visiting that establishment ever again, you should go with the former. Your results are not session-dependent, and you WILL lose sometimes. Often casinos will NOT eject card counters who are losing, hoping that they will eventually tilt and start playing -EV. Once you manage to start a comeback and have kept your wits about you the entire time, they will show you the door before you can get all the way unstuck. What if you are winning? Then it's especially important to leave. If you are ahead and have just completed an excellent round, leave when they get to the shuffle (or when the count drops irreversably negative).

Questions/comments welcome.

Let me first say as a long time NWP lurker (probably ever since the Matusow interview, a long time back) I've never really felt the urge to post on NWP before. I just would like to say I think these strategy posts are very informative and well written as most of your thoughts and ideas are (I know, :noose for the brown nosing). Hopefully you'll have more blackjack-related ideas to discuss as I'd really look forward to them.

I recall someone mentioning a blackjack-only board which would be nice, and even though it probably wouldn't have lots of new topics and responses every day, it could be useful as I've seen a handful of blackjack topics that seem to garner a good amount of interest. At the very worst, it wouldn't be as dead as the NWP Radio board.

A couple blackjack-related questions I have that I'm not sure you'd have too much experience with as you probably bet large amounts compared to most of the grinders out there.. how much would you typically have to be betting on a hand before the casino gets suspicious of you as a card counter? (i.e. $10, $20, $100, etc.) Also, what kind of tables tend to attract the most heat? In other words, is more attention paid to the tables with 2 and 4 deck shoes as opposed to the 6 and 8 deck shoes, tables with surrender as opposed to no surrender offered, etc?

Only time I ever play BJ is when im in vegas, and its usually at terrible places like the bellagio and wynn. I know you cant do any counting there cause they have those machines, so i just do basic strat. and usually end up around even. Basically, which strip casino is the best for card counters?

Glad you came out of lurk-mode, sabes. You brought up some good questions.

The "heat" usually begins if you're base-betting $25 or more. That is, if you're spreading something like $25-$125 depending upon the count. If your base bet is $10, you are unlikely to see much heat from the pit, except perhaps at small casinos.

I have never played a 4-deck shoe, so I can't comment on that. (Those are very rare.) However, there is DEFINITELY more heat given to single-deck and double-deck games than at 6 and 8 deck games. Truthfully, the 8-deckers usually don't have enough penetration to be +EV, but the 6-decks can be played profitably, and they often are neglected by the pit staff. There is an incorrect stereotype about card counters that they primarily stick to 1 and 2 deck games. This is not to say that you won't get heat at 6-deck games, but it will almost always be less.

Regarding surrender: Surrender is a great option to have as a player (especially as a card counter), but it will not tend to attract more heat. The great thing about surrender is that it will allow you to get a 50% refund in those horrible high-count situations where you're dealt 15 or 16 and the dealer shows a 10. Given the fact that your bets will be very big in these situations (and your chances to win very low), it's excellent to be able to recover half your money.

Here are a few other tips regarding avoiding heat at casinos:

1) Stay out of the high limit pit if possible. You will get far more heat there than at the regular pit, and often the regular pit will feature a high enough max bet to where you don't need the high limit pit for relatively big action. It is true that the high limit pit will sometimes offer the stand-on-soft-17 rule instead of hitting it, but that alone is not enough to make it worth it to have to deal with a major increase in pit heat.

2) As mentioned before, avoid playing heads up with the dealer, especially if there's already another table running with 1 or 2 players. Only take heads-up if nobody else is playing, or if other tables are nearly full.

3) Don't give/get a player's card. You don't want the casino tracking you, and you don't want your name known if you do get barred. Some good excuses: "I'm just here for a little bit. I'm going to dinner soon", "My wife will kill me if she finds out I'm still gambling", "I don't come here often, so I don't really need one", or "I don't feel like signing up right now, but maybe I will a bit later."

4) Remember where you are. Large, high-class casinos like Bellagio take a ton of action without much concern. Small, side-of-the-highway casinos typically see just a handful of $3/hand players, so you can't come in throwing around $100-$500 per hand without getting a ton of unwanted attention. Look around to see what other people are betting, and don't ridiculously exceed the next-highest action player.

5) Get in, get on, and get out. Don't mill around the tables forever before sitting down. Quickly find the right game and sit there. After you're done playing, leave the casino immediately -- sometimes before cashing out if the heat seemed particularly high. (It is common for the pit staff to meet you at the cage to bar you.) Once you're done, leaves the premises immediately. I made this mistake more than once, where I hung out with friends elsewhere in the casino after playing. Sure enough, I was tracked down by the pit staff and told not to play blackjack there again.

6) Don't return to the scene of the "crime". While card counting isn't a crime, it's definitely against the casino rules. Don't keep coming back to the same place within a short period of time (i.e. the same trip), or you're sure to get barred. After you've played a lot at one casino (especially if you have won), don't return there for at least a few weeks.

Wrong! Wynn and Bellagio both feature some excellent blackjack games. You just need to properly select where you sit.

NEVER sit with a continuous shuffler if you're a card counter. Those games are unbeatable. Automatic shufflers (which shuffle AFTER the cards have all been dealt) are okay, and in fact help speed up the game. Do not confuse automatic shufflers with continuous shufflers.

Here is the checklist for a beatable blackjack game (must have all of these requirements):

1) Blackjack pays 3:2
2) Double on any 2 cards allowed
3) No continuous shuffler
4) At least 4 of 6 decks are dealt at 6-deck shoe, at least 1 of 2 decks are dealt at 2-deck shoe. (You typically want BETTER penetration than this, but this is really the bare-bones minimum of what you need.)
5) Double after-split allowed at shoe games. (You really want it also at double-deck games, but it's a little less important.)
6) Not a variant of blackjack, such as Spanish 21.

Here is the checklist for additional things that are nice to have:
1) Surrender option (almost never offered at single or double deck)
2) Dealer stands on soft 17
3) You can split aces more than once (almost never offered at single or double deck)

As I posted in the other thread I counted cards succefully for about 6 months after practicing and learning for 8 months. I have a couple of questions

1. As i said before I pretty much had to stop cuz there are no fair games around me. Am I right in saying that if the casino hides the shoe and the discard tray, it is imposible to count cards cuz you dont know the penatration?

2. Do you feel like counting cards is something everyone can do? Maybe I'm just stupid, but as I said it took me 8 months of learning and practicing, and then when I couldnt get to vegas enough, I could tell I was getting rusty to the point where I wasnt sure I still had an edge.

thanks for the insight.

Oh, well I've always played it with the stupid cont. shuffle machine, but I didn't actively look for a hand shuffled table. I usually just play to get a couple free drinks before I gotta go to dinner/airport/meet up with someone/etc.

One of the things I've been thinking about in using this tactic, is what if you get a hand that needs to be doubled or splitted, say AA? I think I would have extra money on me and try to play it off like, "I really wasn't planning on gambling this money tonight, but I can't really pass this shot up either" or something similar. Just curious if anyone would handle this situation differently.

Also if you had to double or split again (unlikely with a high count I would think, but it could happen) then you should be allowed to buy more chips in the middle of a hand if cash doesn't play, right?

Good questions, and a good point, as well.

First, it is important to always have enough money on you. That is, don't bet an amount on any hand unless you have at least 4x the base bet on you. Why 4x? Because it happens fairly often where you will end up splitting a hand twice, and with 3 hands running together, there's a decent chance that you may have to also double. Can you end up needing more than 4x? Yes, but it doesn't happen often. Of course, the best thing is to have way more money on you than you really need for the game, to cover all bases. However, what you should never do is bet without having enough money to double. That puts you at a HUGE disadvantage, as the double option is a big factor in somewhat neutralizing the dealer's act-last advantage.

What excuse do you give after going "all in" and then finding yourself in a doubling situation? No excuse necessary. You said "I'm all in" regarding your chips, not regarding all of your money. You may want to comment like, "Oh man, now I've gotta double (or split) this?! I better win this one!"

And yes, you can always buy more chips in the middle of the hand.

Sorry I missed these questions earlier.

Yes, if the casino hides the shoe and discard tray, it becomes very difficult to successfully card count. I would move on and try elsewhere. (Also, illegal shenanigans could be going on there!)

And no, card counting isn't something everyone can do. You need to have good concentration, a decent short-term memory, and a lot of discipline. Also, you shouldn't get very rusty once you're good at it. I can safely say that I could stop playing blackjack today, sit back down in a casino in the year 2017, and be almost as good at card counting as I am today.

1) I have seen Druff @ work @ the BJ table

2) I was the friend that came along for some -EV action

3) AND we had 2 chicks @ the BJ table

4) Druff really did go nuts over wins / losses. I was quite amused.

Druff, sticky please.

Druff, how do you scout the tables ? With the 6 deck shoes it takes awhile between shuffles, and it seems in order to gauge the penetration and find the best situation you must observe the tables for some time before picking the most +ev. This seems like it would be hard to do from a distance, yet something that you wouldn't want noticed. A guy who is casing the bj pit doesn't gybe with the casual,disinterested, reckless gambler image you are trying to project. How do you properly evaluate the penetration, how deep they are dealing, and all the other variables while not exposing yourself as a savvy player?

I don't understand how these can be true for a zero-count. Surely the 'average' count is zero, and basic strategy caters to an 'average' hand. Therefore it only seems logical that if these 2 points are correct then basic strategy is incorrect.

Isnt this poor advice? Giving up the ability to split kills your EV. Is the corresponding increase in player advantage enough to overcome that loss?

I haven't played bj in a long while so this may be a dumb question, but I thought you are allowed to go into your pocket to split or double ? I'm sure Druff wasn't advocating beting his last $600. Just the last $600 on the table.

Ah, perhaps that is true. I just assumed one could only bet what was on the table, a la poker. I havent played much live casino bj at all--almost all of my experience is through bonus whoring...

yes seems strange

i think you should only do those actions when the deck is positive or negative a certain point.

obviously when the deck is zero you should stick to pure basic strategy