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 NFL Season Win Totals, Budman? UndlearnDefy? |
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 Jun 24 2008, 01:26 PM
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NWP Pirahna
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I haven't put the bets in yet because my bookie won't have them until July. If the odds stay the same, I'll probably lay $1000 on each. The odds are taken off Pinnacle. Let me know what you guys think.
Cleveland Browns Under 8 wins (-116)
Browns were a surprise team last year and everyone will be expecting them to compete for playoff contention. Cleveland has an absolutely brutal schedule only playing four teams with losing records from 2007.
Projected losses: DAL, PIT, NYG, @Was, @Jac, IND, @Ten, @Phi, @Pit
Projected wins: BAL, DEN, @Buf, HOU, CIN
Toss ups: @Bal, @Cin
At home, a win against Dallas, Pittsburgh, New York Giants, or Indianapolis could happen, but is highly unlikely, so let's just consider them immediate losses. Away games at Pittsburgh and at Jacksonville should also be considered losses. They would need to steal a road game against Washington, Tennessee or Philadelphia just to have a chance at 8 total wins. Cleveland isn't a team that has "nothing to lose" anymore; they have high expectations. Derek Anderson is under a lot of pressure to perform otherwise his starting job could inevitably be taken away from him and given to Cleveland's future in Brady Quinn. Jamal Lewis had a surprise year, but he's aging and many experts expect him to have a fall-out year. Saying the Browns can win more than eight games in the regular season is a reach.
Projected win/loss record: 6-10
Houston Texans Under 7.5 wins (-112)
Like Cleveland, Houston was a surprise team that stayed under the radar for most of the season. Again, like the Browns, they had a fairly decent, balanced offense, however their defense struggled at times. They finished the 2007 season at 8-8 and finished last in their division. They only had one "win" in their division last year which was considered a garbage game anyways, since Jacksonville rested their starters because they had already clinched a playoff spot. The AFC South is considered one of the toughest divisions in the entire league. Looking at Indianapolis, Jacksonville and Tennessee one could see that all three teams focus on defense more than anything, while Houston is still trying to assemble their offense. They were outscored 199 to 154 in their 6 divisional games in '07 (they scored 42 points in the regular season finale in the garbage game against Jacksonville).
In 2007, Houston's eight total wins came from beating Kansas City, Carolina, Miami, Oakland, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Denver, and Jacksonville. That's one legitimate win against a playoff team (Tampa Bay) and a garbage win against Jacksonville. They lost to Atlanta, San Diego, and Cleveland in their non-divisional games. The similarities between Houston and Cleveland are unparalleled. Both teams had a surprise season with relatively unknown quarterbacks (Sage Rosenfels, Derek Anderson); both have one star wide receiver (Andre Johnson, Braylon Edwards); both had former stars/veterans filling in at the running back position (Ahman Green, Jamal Anderson), both had similar stats on offense (Houston finished 13th in total points scored, Cleveland finished 8th); both had similar stats on defense (Houston finished 23rd in points allowed, Cleveland finished 21st). The most important aspect of similarities is that both play in the AFC, which is undoubtedly much tougher to compete in compared to the NFC.
Projected losses: @Pit, @Ten, @Jac, IND, @Ind, @Cle, JAC, TEN
Projected wins: BAL, MIA, DET, CIN, @Oak
Toss ups: @Min, @Gb, CHI
Projected win/loss record: 6-10
The most important thing is going against the public. While there aren't any published stats on public percentages on total wins, one could easily assume that the public will use their most recent knowledge on surprise teams supposedly on the rise and bet the over on them. Teams like Minnesota, Houston, Cleveland, Washington, all who had a decent season last year, will be fresh on the publics' minds.
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Jun 24 2008, 01:27 PM
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NWP Texas Hammer
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I love these picks but I cannot bet against the Texans all season long. What are the rest of the totals?
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QUOTE(Slim1988 @ Aug 20 2008, 01:54 PM)  I would post the ultrasound pic, but I don't want my child to be the youngest person ever photoshopped sitting next to hofnig or some other random black cock. |
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Jun 24 2008, 01:41 PM
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NWP Texas Hammer
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any college football total win odds?
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QUOTE(Slim1988 @ Aug 20 2008, 01:54 PM) I would post the ultrasound pic, but I don't want my child to be the youngest person ever photoshopped sitting next to hofnig or some other random black cock. |
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Jun 24 2008, 01:58 PM
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NWP Pirahna
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QUOTE(GAMBLE-BOT @ Jun 25 2008, 07:41 AM) any college football total win odds? I don't see any yet. I don't think they have them. They have odds on who will win the National Championship though.
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Jun 24 2008, 02:06 PM
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NWP Texas Hammer
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QUOTE(remyx @ Jun 24 2008, 04:58 PM) QUOTE(GAMBLE-BOT @ Jun 25 2008, 07:41 AM) any college football total win odds? I don't see any yet. I don't think they have them. They have odds on who will win the National Championship though. ive sween these before they aree hard to find
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QUOTE(Slim1988 @ Aug 20 2008, 01:54 PM) I would post the ultrasound pic, but I don't want my child to be the youngest person ever photoshopped sitting next to hofnig or some other random black cock. |
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Jun 24 2008, 02:16 PM
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NWP Texas Hammer
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QUOTE(spennywins @ Jun 24 2008, 05:14 PM) Anyone have any thoughts on the overs for St.Louis at 6.5 and Denver at 7.5? i like the overs on both
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QUOTE(Slim1988 @ Aug 20 2008, 01:54 PM) I would post the ultrasound pic, but I don't want my child to be the youngest person ever photoshopped sitting next to hofnig or some other random black cock. |
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Jun 24 2008, 02:20 PM
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NWP Career Scammer
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QUOTE(remyx @ Jun 24 2008, 09:26 PM) I haven't put the bets in yet because my bookie won't have them until July. If the odds stay the same, I'll probably lay $1000 on each. The odds are taken off Pinnacle. Let me know what you guys think.
Cleveland Browns Under 8 wins (-116)
Browns were a surprise team last year and everyone will be expecting them to compete for playoff contention. Cleveland has an absolutely brutal schedule only playing four teams with losing records from 2007.
Projected losses: DAL, PIT, NYG, @Was, @Jac, IND, @Ten, @Phi, @Pit
Projected wins: BAL, DEN, @Buf, HOU, CIN
Toss ups: @Bal, @Cin
At home, a win against Dallas, Pittsburgh, New York Giants, or Indianapolis could happen, but is highly unlikely, so let's just consider them immediate losses. Away games at Pittsburgh and at Jacksonville should also be considered losses. They would need to steal a road game against Washington, Tennessee or Philadelphia just to have a chance at 8 total wins. Cleveland isn't a team that has "nothing to lose" anymore; they have high expectations. Derek Anderson is under a lot of pressure to perform otherwise his starting job could inevitably be taken away from him and given to Cleveland's future in Brady Quinn. Jamal Lewis had a surprise year, but he's aging and many experts expect him to have a fall-out year. Saying the Browns can win more than eight games in the regular season is a reach.
Projected win/loss record: 6-10
Houston Texans Under 7.5 wins (-112)
Like Cleveland, Houston was a surprise team that stayed under the radar for most of the season. Again, like the Browns, they had a fairly decent, balanced offense, however their defense struggled at times. They finished the 2007 season at 8-8 and finished last in their division. They only had one "win" in their division last year which was considered a garbage game anyways, since Jacksonville rested their starters because they had already clinched a playoff spot. The AFC South is considered one of the toughest divisions in the entire league. Looking at Indianapolis, Jacksonville and Tennessee one could see that all three teams focus on defense more than anything, while Houston is still trying to assemble their offense. They were outscored 199 to 154 in their 6 divisional games in '07 (they scored 42 points in the regular season finale in the garbage game against Jacksonville).
In 2007, Houston's eight total wins came from beating Kansas City, Carolina, Miami, Oakland, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Denver, and Jacksonville. That's one legitimate win against a playoff team (Tampa Bay) and a garbage win against Jacksonville. They lost to Atlanta, San Diego, and Cleveland in their non-divisional games. The similarities between Houston and Cleveland are unparalleled. Both teams had a surprise season with relatively unknown quarterbacks (Sage Rosenfels, Derek Anderson); both have one star wide receiver (Andre Johnson, Braylon Edwards); both had former stars/veterans filling in at the running back position (Ahman Green, Jamal Anderson), both had similar stats on offense (Houston finished 13th in total points scored, Cleveland finished 8th); both had similar stats on defense (Houston finished 23rd in points allowed, Cleveland finished 21st). The most important aspect of similarities is that both play in the AFC, which is undoubtedly much tougher to compete in compared to the NFC.
Projected losses: @Pit, @Ten, @Jac, IND, @Ind, @Cle, JAC, TEN
Projected wins: BAL, MIA, DET, CIN, @Oak
Toss ups: @Min, @Gb, CHI
Projected win/loss record: 6-10
The most important thing is going against the public. While there aren't any published stats on public percentages on total wins, one could easily assume that the public will use their most recent knowledge on surprise teams supposedly on the rise and bet the over on them. Teams like Minnesota, Houston, Cleveland, Washington, all who had a decent season last year, will be fresh on the publics' minds. I would agree on under 8 it looks like they r begging u to take over. Plus u got to fig that Baltimore and Cinncy will not be as bad as last yr maybe Cinncy but not Balt.
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Jun 26 2008, 04:24 AM
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NWP Maniac
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Over 12.5 season wins -112 pats
lock it up
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Boise State 56 Louisiana Tech 10
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Jun 26 2008, 06:06 PM
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NWP Maniac
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QUOTE(easternmh @ Jun 26 2008, 05:21 PM) Put the House on the Bears UNDER..............They might be the worst team in football........That offense won't score
I wouldnt touch browns or texans Yeah when are they going to find a solid qb? If you play fantasy keep an eye on Matt Forte. He should be solid for them
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Boise State 56 Louisiana Tech 10
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Jun 26 2008, 06:49 PM
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NWP Pirahna
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QUOTE(Chinamaniac @ Jun 27 2008, 02:06 AM) QUOTE(easternmh @ Jun 26 2008, 05:21 PM) Put the House on the Bears UNDER..............They might be the worst team in football........That offense won't score
I wouldnt touch browns or texans Yeah when are they going to find a solid qb? If you play fantasy keep an eye on Matt Forte. He should be solid for them Good ?, I just can't see them sniffing 8 wins........Off. Line is OLD, QB Blows, WR's are below average, and RB is a rookie = Bad news
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Jun 30 2008, 02:40 PM
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NWP Uber-Fish
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denver over 7.5 (+136) seems solid. being a steelers fan i hate to say it, but i wouldnt fire too much against cleveland. they improved their run d and should contend in a pretty weak division where 9 wins may be enough. they already proved they can score. i generally stay away from futures and preseason games though since i like money.
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Jun 30 2008, 04:18 PM
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NWP Pirahna
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I like St Louis over (ton of injuries last year, and division is pretty weak), and I really like the Raiders under, 6.5 is way too much even with that weak ass division. That team has a lame duck coach, too many new players, and they gave up and gleefully took it up the ass LAST year after week 9. They'll barely win 3.
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Mike Tyson: I sacrifice so much in my life, can I at least get laid, nah'mean? I've been robbed of most of my money, can I at least get a blowjob?
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Jun 30 2008, 04:40 PM
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NWP Uber-Fish
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QUOTE(easternmh @ Jun 30 2008, 06:51 PM) Unlearn how do u feel about the bears?  under 8 for sure
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Jun 30 2008, 05:23 PM
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NWP Pirahna
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Bears need to figure out QB situation first, but teams with good special teams can sometimes finagle 4-5 wins just based on that sometimes.
Teams with the QB situation up in the air are harder to predict, IMO. Some hungry motherfucker might get into training camp and see Orton, Grossman on the depth chart and say, "Well shit, I'm better than these two clowns. As long as I don't go out and drink Jack with Orton everynight, I'm solid."
I say under 8, too, but Lovie Smith is usually known for overachievement. Plus that division is weak sauce now that Farve retired. I could see them grinding out a bet because his teams don't tank it at the end just because they are out of the playoffs (plus the NFC, a 7-9 team COULD make the playoffs this year).
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Mike Tyson: I sacrifice so much in my life, can I at least get laid, nah'mean? I've been robbed of most of my money, can I at least get a blowjob?
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