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Common blackjack fallacies, Mostly related to card counting
fuhoser
post Mar 25 2008, 07:19 PM
Post #21



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QUOTE(DanDruff @ Mar 25 2008, 11:14 PM) *
QUOTE(fuhoser @ Mar 24 2008, 05:19 AM) *
I had #1 occur on me when I sat down with my $25 match play at the trop. Pitboss looked me over for a few seconds (I thought she was wondering whether to card me) instead she tells the dealer to shuffle the shoe. LOL I need a "I look dumb" disguise.


I don't think they gave a shit about a $25 match play.

Had you come over and slammed down hundreds of dollars on the first hand, I can understand them telling the dealer to shuffle. Was either a coincidence or the pit boss really was paranoid.


Didn't claim or suggest they gave a shit about the $25 match play. That was my point, the pitboss was paranoid and I look like a counter. I just sat down at the table, why would she ask the dealer to prematurely shuffle before the cut card? Maybe she suspected one of the other guys was counting... Kinda doubtful. I don't know where the card was at the moment I sat down, but there was nothing else going on for her to ask them to shuffle up except me sitting down.


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ucntcmebch
post Apr 5 2008, 07:30 PM
Post #22


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QUOTE(DanDruff @ Mar 17 2008, 01:13 PM) *
QUOTE(Merlin9999 @ Mar 17 2008, 11:08 AM) *
QUOTE(liquidsyphon @ Mar 17 2008, 01:56 PM) *
not sure if you read barry g's book but he puts in it a stupidly simple strategy to playing black jack or other "50/50" games. say you lose your first hand, so then you bet what you lost plus a little more and eventually you'll win a hand and still have a profit. is this feasible or is the max bet on the table going to kill you if you drop like 5 hands in a row


His explanation of the martingale system was meant to decry it as illogical thinking. As he points out, the times you lose a lot of money trying to win one bet will outweigh the many times you win a bet.


Exactly. What you just described, syphon, was the Martingale system, and it is -EV in the long run. In fact, it will lead to quick financial ruin when you finally hit that improbable losing streak. The only way it could work is if you had a literally unlimited bankroll and the casino would let you bet as much as you want per hand. In such a case, you could overcome any losing streak, no matter how bad, by just repeatedly doubling your last bet until you win. However, since nobody has an unlimited roll, and since no casino will let you bet unlimited amounts, you will either go bust or run into the table/house maximum during a bad losing streak, at which point you're screwed.



I tried this at the Sahara,( never play BJ , took a stab at counting practicing for about 2 months, didnt have enuf time or just too bad at math to learn it well enough, got decent in my living room but couldn't pull it off in a casino, if I really tried again I could no doubt) knew it was -EV but all my fiends were playing and I was stuck so since they have/had $1 tables with a high max bet I figured WTF. I think it was like 16 hands I had to lose to go bust, and I got to the 16th hand and won it. I was a few $'s over the max bet on that last hand after he counted it up and they refused to pay me the amount I was over ( I knew they were right but I acted like I was pissed cuz i was bored).


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