YOU MAKE THE CALL - Draws at NL Tournament Edition, Draws

Yesterday, I found myself in not one, not two, but THREE drawing situations where I picked up draws while being below-average stacked. These were all early in the event.

I'd like to get everyone's opinion on these, and please don't just simply say "shove all in" because being aggressive sounds cooler. I think there's an argument to be had on both sides of each of these.

I won't tell you which one I did in any of the three cases, so there won't be any additional bias.

These were all from WSOP event #39, $1500 NL, where you start with 4500 in chips.


SITUATION #1: Level 1 (25-50 blinds)
My starting stack: 3600
Average stack: Around 5000-5500

After nearly an hour of barely playing any hands, I pick up KhTh UTG. I raise to 125, which is 2.5x BB. I plan to fold to any re-raise. Someone in early position flats. The SB flats. The BB folds.

Pot size: $425

Flop: QhJc7s

I have an open-ended straight draw, backdoor flush draw, and 1 overcard.

I bet $400. The early position guy flats. The SB doesn't think very long, and makes it $2000 total, effectively putting me to an all-in-or-fold decision.

Early position is an Indian-looking guy around 40. The SB is a white guy around 65. It is my read that the SB has a very big hand, probably 77 or QJ. Both players have me covered.

What should I do?




SITUATION #2: Level 4 (100-200 blinds, no antes)
My stack: 2500
Average stack: 7500

Player (same 40-year-old Indian guy from #1) open-limps from UTG. Another guy calls. I am in the SB with QsJs and complete with 100. (I consider shoving here, but decide against it. Instead, I will shove if I hit the flop.) The BB checks.

Pot size: 800

Flop: 6h4s4c

I am ready to check and fold. I check, BB quickly checks, but the Indian guy seems to be thinking about what to do, and the dealer mistakenly thinks he checked, and announces "check" regarding his action, and looks at the last player to act. That player starts to reach to put out a bet, when the Indian guy yells, "No, no, no! I didn't do anything!" The dealer apologizes.

This now puts the Indian guy in a weird spot. It's obvious that he was thinking about betting, and he saw that the last player was going to bet if he checked. However, due to the dealer's mistake (and the following complaint), it now looks like the Indian guy may have a hand, which could dissuade the next player from betting like he originally planned to.

I am pretty sure that the Indian is going to bet, especially since he has just possibly given away that he has a hand, thus ruining the check-raise. Instead, he still checks. The last player, now likely sensing danger, also checks, and the turn comes down for free.

The turn is Ts, giving me a flush draw with overcards. However, since the board is paired, there is a chance I could be drawing dead.

I have 2400 behind. The Indian has me easily covered. I consider shoving here, but I think that the Indian probably has a hand, and will call me, leaving me drawing to either a flush on the river or dead. Instead, I check, hoping to get a free card again.

BB checks, Indian now puts out $500 into the $800 pot. Next guy folds. It's on me. I am pretty convinced that the BB has trash and will fold no matter what. All players remaining have me covered. What should I do here?




SITUATION #3: LEVEL 4 (100-200 blinds, no ante)
My stack: 2400
Average stack: 7500

White guy around 60 years old limps in early position. Folds to me, I look down to see J9o in late position. I call. Button (the same Indian guy from both other hands) calls. SB completes. BB checks.

Post size: $1000

Flop: T84 rainbow

Blinds quickly check. Early position white guy immediately fires out $1000. I am almost certain that he has top pair or better. Button still left to act behind.

All players have me covered.

What should I do here?

ship first drawing hand probably get stacked and not have to worry about the rest.

First off, there are much more qualified tournament players than me that could give you better advice relating to more tournament specific strategy.

Situation #1

-You can't really ever be drawing stone dead and will always at least have some clean outs even if he has the very top of his range (something like QQ, JJ, QJ, or 77)...you did raise utg so I don't think QQ and JJ are out of the question for his range.
-If he has the very bottom of his range (T9s) you are in great shape.
-However, some of the other hands in his range have you in bad shape as well (AQ, KQ, and I suppose there is a very small chance he could have AJ/KJ).
-There is $3225 in the pot and you have to call 1600 more (2:1) with implied odds of winning another 1600 if you make your hand. Best case scenario, you win the hand and have about $6400 stack.
-I don't think you can ever just call here and I think it is safe to say you don't have any fold equity from a shove. Therefore if you play the hand it obv has to be for all your chips. So you are risking 3200 to win 6400 (still 2:1).

If you include QQ-JJ,77,AJs,KJs,QJs,T9s,AJo,KJo+,QJo,T9o you have 43% equity and its a pretty clear call.
If you take out T9 and T9o and are left with only QQ-JJ,77,AJs,KJs,QJs,AJo,KJo+,QJo you have around 34% equity
Even if you only give him the very top of his range and use QQ-JJ,77,QJs,QJo you still have 30% equity.

Basically, you are never in horrible shape and you are never in great shape. If you think you desperately need to get chips because you have a poor table draw or are in danger of being short stacked it isn't the worst spot to take a gamble, imo. I know it is cliche, but if you think you can pick a better spot then you could make a good argument for folding here.

I think a smaller continuation bet would serve you better in this spot. You are still going to fold out almost exactly the same hands (small pp's, weak 7's, bad Ace high hands) that are ahead of you with a bet of $200 or $225 as you would with a $400 bet. It also allows you a lot more wiggle room and increases your implied odds when you are faced with a decision like this.

For example, If you bet $200, EP flats, then the SB decides to raise he might only raise it to $900-1200 which would make the pot 1725-2025 and you would only have to call 700-1000. This would be offering you a little bit better of a price on your initial pot odds, but much higher implied odds.

You have to remember to always ask yourself: What is the purpose of this bet (your cbet in this case)? Are you protecting your hand against draws? Trying to fold out better hands? Creating an image to use later? Taking advantage of an image you already have? Building a pot to steal/win on later streets?

Once you have decided on the purpose of the bet you should then decide on an amount that will accomplish that and bet that EXACT amount. Don't just bet to be betting.

In this particular case there are a couple of things you may be trying to accomplish:
1. It would be great if your bet forced some better hands to fold and you won a pot you didn't deserve with only King high. However, you aren't going to get many better hands to fold in this spot, imo.
2. You could be building a pot that you have a decent amount of equity in.
3. You could just be trying to develop a loose/aggressive image so that you will get paid off on your monsters later.

I think this is definitely more of a case of 2 and 3 than anything else in which case I think a bet of $400 is more than you need to spend to accomplish these things.

Druff, do you agree with my thoughts on your bet sizing here? If not, lets here your logic behind the $400 bet.



I didn't intend to write so much on this, but now that I have I don't feel like addressing situations 2 and 3. Maybe I will be motivated again tomorrow, but this is all I've got for now.

killa, thanks for the long analysis. I do wish you felt you still had the energy to answer #2 and #3, because I want to hear your thoughts on those, as well.

Regarding his range: I wasn't looking for a debate as to whether he held a monster, because I was pretty sure of it. I had watched this guy play some other hands, and his general image (older, straightforward white guy) would also strongly imply that. You know those times when you just really get the feeling that you are totally sure what the other guys has? This was one of those times. I didn't know his exact hand, but I knew it was something very big -- in fact big enough to beat me with a re-suck if I called and hit on the turn.

So if you get the strong feeling that the SB flopped huge, the question is whether you still go all-in (which you have to due to the bet-sizing and relative stack size), or just fold.

So if you were to get the read that I did in this spot, would you have folded or put all of your chips in?

Regarding the $400 c-bet:

I try to size my c-bets to be hit-miss-independent. That is, I don't want to give away information with my c-bets.

For example, in this spot, the flop of Q-J-7 is obviously vulnerable to suckouts, no matter what hand you're holding. Therefore, nobody with a good hand in this spot is going to put out a weak flop c-bet. A weak flop bet here is usually the sign of a miss. At the same time, if the flop was K-7-3 rainbow, I would make a smaller c-bet, as there's really no draws to protect against, and therefore a made hand wouldn't be betting as much.

The only exceptions to the above are:

1) If I'm short stacked, I either shove on the flop or check/fold. This is fairly obvious, though.

2) If the flop almost surely hit my opponents but missed me. For example, if I raise 6d6h, get 3 callers, and the flop comes 9sTsJs. I don't even bother to take a stab at that one.

I like Killa's analysis as well as yours - IMHO what I do in this spot is tank for a minute or so and fold. I probably decide to fold a lot sooner, but I don't want to set a passive image.

I see two prevailing reasons for the fold here:

1) I have 60 minute levels, I'm not in desperate shape yet chipwise, so I'm probably going to get a better spot than this one which is likely the bad end of a 65-35 giving the villian credit for a set, which I absolutely do as the situation is described.

2) I'm showing the table I am capable of a fold, and I'm setting up the ability to get paid off when I do have a big hand later and play it like a draw, encouraging my opponent to try and push me around "again". I probably don't have an all-star lineup, in a $1500 NLHE event, so I give them credit for "first level" strategy like this (I saw him fold, I can push him around, I'm going push him off any hand he's not playing super aggro)

As for situations 2 and 3, they're perfect examples of how soul-drenching NLHE tournies are. You have a short stack, you're light years from the money, and you're not going to be a factor without at least 2-3x more chips in your stack.

In example 2 you have one card to come and you know you have to hit your flush or your overs , and even that might not be good enough - so in this case, I think you actually swallow, sigh, curse the poker gods, and muck, then let your ICM lessons from SNG school take over and find a place to open shove A10 or better as you'll likely have a better shot at your double up there than you do here. In this spot, I generally ask myself "Is my chance of hitting this less than or more than the chance I will get looking for a spot to shove and get a race?". I think in this case, I conclude I'm better just looking for a headsup race spot with 5 cards to come down.

In example 3 it is clear you're going to need to hit your open ender, you MIGHT also have overcard outs, but you're prolly at least going in with 8 outs twice, ok, you need to shove and pray here.

This is what I like from "thakilla's" advice...Remember at this point when the 65 year old guy fires out more into the pot that "Old" people don't bluff...You're behind and drawing alright...Made hands generally rule, and make draws drule...Calling at 2-1 is not right...Not to mention what if you call the old man's raise and Indian Joe folds?...Now it's really a bad bargain..FWIW...

SUPERSONNY

Short answer, no I would fold believing I was still a threat with the $3k stack at 25/50 blinds. However, this could be incorrect tournament strategy since you definitely have to accumulate chips somehow. Cash game = fold. Tourney = fold, imo, but it is definitely much closer.

Back to my bet sizing philosophy....The difference between NL and LHE is that you can choose to bet any amount you want. I think you are really limiting your arsenal if you make a personal rule that says anytime the board is draw heavy and I choose to cbet I will bet somewhere near the pot. If the board is not draw heavy I will bet around 1/2 pot. I am still curious about what the goal of your pot-sized cbet was. Were you bluffing? Value betting? What exactly do you want to happen? Are they ever folding a better hand? Are there any draws you are actually trying to protect against? Are you only trying to give the appearance that you are protecting against draws? More specifically, which exact hands that they might hold are you trying to manipulate with your cbet and how so? There are many factors that should be considered when deciding how much to cbet other than the texture of the flop. It seems like you are assuming that the only two hands that a cbettor could have is a monster or air. You actually have a hand that has alot of equity and I think that you should reserve yourself the right to bet a different amount if you think it will be beneficial.

" Therefore, nobody with a good hand in this spot is going to put out a weak flop c-bet. A weak flop bet here is usually the sign of a miss. " If everyone actually thought like this is would be incredibly easy to exploit them. Just bet small when you flop a monster and wait for them to raise you because you are "weak". Sometimes in NL it is extremely profitable to mis-represent the strength of your hand. You don't ALWAYS have to "price out draws" just because that option is available to you. Sometimes you can give your opponent just enough rope that they can hang their self. Other times they will make their draw a little cheaper than it could have been, but then you have managed to keep the pot smaller anyway.

In this particular case you were put in a pretty horrible spot, but I think it was somewhat self induced by the bet size you chose. You could have chosen a slightly lower variance line that would have given you an easier decision and cost you less chips to serve the same purpose.

In regards to the question in bold.....I think it is often times an uncomfortable question to answer for a lot of people, because they didn't actually stop to think about it before they bet. Please address it if you would.

Hand 1: I like checking flop with the intention of check/raising if LP player bets. The check/raise will look extremely strong and you can get made hands like KQ, AJ, maybe even AQ to fold as you are repping JJ-AA and AQ. If there's a bet/raise, then you can just fold. Also, if it's checked around, you get a free draw and will likely get paid off in full by 77 or 2 pair hands if you hit. As played, I fold.

Hand 2: This is completely read dependent but I think it's just a fold. Calling off 1/5 of your stack is bad and it's hard to say if the UTG player will fold without a range to put him on.

Hand 3: Fold pre. There aren't many good flops for J9o and even when you hit a desirable one like you did, it's still an awkward spot with your stack. You should be in push/fold mode. As played, I guess I just fold because you don't have any fold equity, though you can argue for shoving to get a playable stack. When you lose your fold equity in a NL MTT, you throw skill out the window.

1. fold

2. fold

3. fold pre

I can give you my reasoning when I see you I hate typing analysis

Tough situations Druff. As an initial observation, you seemed to be in pots with these guys a lot. Were they generally active players, or did they seem to like to get involved in pots with you (meaning they thought they had a read), or did they like getting in pots with short stacks generally (meaning they thought they could induce folds from players trying to hang on and make the money)?

The 65-year old white guy wasn't Harrington was it? LOL

Thoughts on each hand below. Take them with a grain of salt as I am an amateur and have never played a large buy-in live tourney. But my opinion FWIW.



First let me say that this is still early, so UTG I would probably flat call KJs looking to see a cheap flop and fold to any raise unless there were enough callers to give me at least 4:1 pot odds.

I also would have put out a smaller c-bet. As you wrote it is good to make sure your opponents can detect no pattern in the size of your bets which would tell them whether you hit or are just c-betting. But either way I think a half to 2/3 pot sized bet is preferable. If you'd been putting out pot sized bets, a smaller bet here would actually be a good idea because it would force your opponents to figure out whether you missed or are value betting to induce a call or check-raise. The best time to do something a little different is against someone you've been in a few pots with.

Now, what does your opponent have? I doubt AA-JJ because with pairs like this I think most people would re-raise even against an early position raise. with AA/KK I'd re-raise to make sure that I didn't get too many callers of the initial raise behind me. With QQ/JJ I would re-raise not only to shut out further callers but to see where I am at--if the original raiser overshoves me I know I'm likely facing AA/KK or possibly AK (unless that person is desperate, but at this point you are not desperate).

Could your opponent hold TT-88? Unlikely. Raising a post-flop bet with those hands with two overcards on the board is foolish.

QJ and 77 both possible. Reasonable calling hands in the pre-flop situation and hands which would want to isolate and put out draws on the flop.

66-22? Again a raise would be retarded. You'd love to get your chips in with such a scenario because you have 8 outs to the straight, maybe a total of 1 out (calculated a la Harrington's method) for the backdoor flush and 8 more outs on 2 overcards, plus weird draws like a double paired board to make a higher 2 pair and outkick your opponent.

AK is possible. If he thinks you hit the Q or J he calculates that he has 10 outs (3 A, 3 K and 4 T). The raise is way too big but is meant to intimidate you and induce a fold.

I think the most likely scenario is that your opponent hit the Q or J and has a solid kicker. In this situation you have the overcard, but your opponent may have the K kicker for their pair, in which case those outs are eliminated. I'd say a K is an out for you only 1/3 of the time, so count it as 1 out rather than 3. You also have the straight draw for 8 outs. And as stated above, add 1 for the weird backdoor flush draw and hope your opponent doesn't have AhJh which I think is unlikely. What is the basis for your read that the opponent has a huge hand?

So you have 10 outs out of 47 unknown cards (1 in 4.7) and you need to call $1600 when the pot is $3225 (2:1). With such poor pot odds, and not yet desperate, I fold.



Difficult but common situation. What could the Indian have? Considering he limped early, and it sounds like he stack is pretty sizeable, he could have just about anything. But it's hard to see him having a 4 or 6 unless they were paired. He could have an overpair to the board with which it's difficult to raise but not too painful to toss if raised big pre-flop, like 77-99. In fact I think this is reasonable because he considered betting the flop and also because his bet size on the turn indicates a probe, as if he thought he was ahead on the flop but that the T that fell on the turn might have beaten him. So let's categorize these as very possible holdings.

I don't see AA-TT as these would almost certainly have raised pre-flop.

I don't see simple overcards unless they are two spades, because he knows if you call he is probably beaten and then he is drawing only to the flush or to an overcard which for all he knows could get him in kicker trouble.

He could have something which has you drawing very slim, like As6s or Ks6s so your flush draw is eliminated and you need to pair your Q or J as your only hope of winning, or maybe AQ or AJ which eliminates either all or half of your overcard outs but makes your flush draw good. In this case you were simply unlucky to have been dominated the whole way. Stranger things have happened.

I estimate that you have 9 flush outs and all 6 overcard outs for a total of 15 out of 46 unknown cards, or 1 in 3. You have to call $500 to win a $1300 pot, or 2.6:1, so you aren't quite getting the pot odds to call. This could have been a very sly bet, putting in just enough so that it is mathematically a mistake to call but small enough that it may still be attractive to call. Call it a stereotype if you like, but considering that this is an Indian I'd say the guy knows exactly what he's doing mathematically speaking. This argues in favor of him having a pair, but no better, because if he has a huge made hand he wants to give you pot odds to call and would make his bet a little smaller. Unless he has a huge made hand, I don't think he can call if you shove. If you shove the pot is $3700 and the Indian has to call $1900, giving him less than 2:1. You haven't given his exact stack size but with a middle pocket pair, just a pair of 6s or 2 overcards I don't think he could call if he has an average sized stack, that's just too big of a risk. I think you overestimate the possibility that you are drawing dead. You never like to see a paired board unless you got a piece of it, but if he actually has a boat so you're drawing dead or trip 4s to eliminate your overcard outs, or a higher flush draw, good for him. Sometimes you have to pay off the huge made hand and that's poker.

I would shove and hope to take down the pot right there.



Again, I disagree with your pre-flop call. Although you are short-stacked, you still have time to look for better hands and I would not call J9o even in late position for 1/12 of my stack. I think you may be carrying over the LHE mentality that it is easy to draw. It's not easy to draw in NLHE against good opponents, especially in tourneys where everyone wants/needs to aggressively build a stack. KTs and J9 are drawing hands. Just MHO.

OK so now you've called. In the absence of other information I think in this situation it's also likely that he has top pair or better, but I would like to know what makes you think so. You have 8 outs to the nuts with 47 unknown cards remaining, or just under 1 in 6. He may have paired his T with a strong kicker so you may have 3 J outs. I don't believe you have any other outs. There's a slight possibility that he has an 8 or 4 and pairing either the J or 9 would win it for you but I think that's highly unlikely, and balanced out by the small possibility that he has a set and your only outs are to the straight, so I won't even add a fraction of these outs to the equation.

You have $2200 left and the pot is $2000. It's $1000 to call, which gives you 2:1 pot odds. This is not a probe bet as it is too large--this is a "GTFO, I don't want to give you odds to draw" bet. You don't have the pot odds to call. If you shove for your remaining stack, the pot will be $4200 and it would be $1200 for your opponent to call, or 3.5:1 odds. Unless his bet is a stone cold bluff, he knows you probably have only a straight draw to beat him, or possibly two overcards, but he also knows that one of your overcards might pair his kicker, eliminating it as an out. I think this would be an easy call for your opponent. You have no power to make him fold. You also don't need to put all your chips in for your tourney life since as I mentioned before you can wait another orbit or maybe two to find a good pre-flop shoving hand (M=7).

You should fold this hand.

So, what happened in these situations? Given your stack size in situations 2 and 3 I assume you folded in situations 1 and 2. Let us know.

Hand 1: Fold...why...65 year old white guys rarely bluff...and don't play easily dominated crap hands UTG preflop. Not sure why people are calling your bet on the flop a c-bet when it's not.

Hand 2: Fold...based on the action who the hell knows where anyone stands...what a mess. Plus I don't like drawing to the non nuts. Just wait for a better spot and shove preflop.

Hand 3: Fold...and never limp when you only have 10-15x the BB...wait for a better spot and shove preflop.

Lol, im the same way........

I feel pretty strongly about each decision here, fwiw....

1. Fold.... and please dont bet the flop...... this is one of the single biggest difference ive found between limit and NL and why its hard sometimes for limit players to adjust. Unlike limit, theres no reason to bet this flop..... and a whole world of reasons not to.....

2. Call

3. Fold pre and fold flop

Druff.... if youre really interested in any one aspect, let me know and ill post further.

Haha, I hope you don't think it is that easy.

I fold number one.

Number two, I bet about 400 on the turn looking to bomb the river when I hit either a Q J or spade for near pot. I try avoid levelling myself with all the misclicking going on. Maybe that 400 takes it down sometimes, too, who knows...

Number three, is a clear fold, because you can either shove with no fold equity. Sure, you can call and get it in on the turn if he puts you all in every single tme you hit your draw, given that you're getting 3.4-1 including implied odds in that scenario, but I'm happier keeping 1k and avoiding that possibility that he is definitely going to put you in. It's more important than the small amount you stand to win that comes with a lot of -1k variance.

Also, every two pair and set combo the guy has in number 3 makes your equity worse when you turn the nuts and get sucked out on. I can't possibly do the math on how often that happens, but I like to think of the idea that your last chip is worth way more than your second last chip, etc...in this scenario.

I think the completion of J9o is okay if you're check/shoving with reasonable pair hands, but in this case he's never folding and the call is so marginal it makes my balls ache a little.

Fold/semibluff turn/fold.