Why Does Antonius play Durrr?...

I think anyone is capable of beating him in PLO but if they played NL durrr would crush everyone. You offering 3:1 like durrrr reggi?

negative. I'll give even money value assuming the current durrrr lead of 149k. You might be right on the PLO, and I agree NL nobody would touch him.

I'll still gamble with you if it's fair odds. Pitch me a number.

ill bet 500 on antonius vs ur 600 durr

assuming lead is still 150k over like 4k hands

I think it's a bad spot for durrrr versus anyone who would accept the challenge, although it's pretty tough to say intuitively.

I have NFI how the numbers break down, but I think durrrr needs a fairly significant edge to overcome the overlay he's giving. I can't remember how big the number of hands they're playing, but it's pretty critical because the variance in PLO is so high. If it were a billion hands any measurable edge would make the bet hugely +EV for durrrr, if it were one hand his EV would be very close -$500k regardless of the size of his edge.

And that's assuming durrrr has an edge in the first place, which is anyone's guess. If he's at all -EV it's a bloodbath with the overlay.

Meh I've got nothing beyond that. Would be interesting if someone modeled it well using real PLO variance data. I read a 2+2 thread about it but nobody seemed to come up with anything definitive.

50k hands is the terms for how long they play. Not that long in terms of giving 3:1 with a smallish edge. No one really came up with a definitive answer for how -EV it is because you need to know what the standard deviation is which varies depending on the players. Lower the standard deviation the better it for for durrr so PA would be in better shape then DB though my understanding is DBs style is a pain for Dwan.

Sounds fair, can you escrow with Druff? Just reply with booked and I'll escrow my 600 to him.

ya if this is right as of now its booked.

just pm me ur full tilt name ill ship to u reggi, i trust that if i win u will ship back etc

hmmm or we can make it 500 vs 500 if u give me line of antonius +400k?

Just to clarify, we're betting 6-5 on the end result of durrrr being up at all right, not up more than 150k?

Honestly after 50k hands I don't think even 150k would matter at these stakes, but I just don't want there to be any confusion.

PM sent, will do more if anyone is interested.

ok sent 2 x 500

lets double it

1k vs 1200

gl

If I were Durrr i'd be tempted to give DB 4 to 1 on the side bet if he can lock him up for more hands than 50k...basicaly rubbing shit in his face needling him that he doesn't have a shot in the world.

Druff,

The bet is now 1200/1000 between me and Tapper. Can you hold the money in your ftp account?

Also, when the fuck are they going to play again?

hmm yea

read some nerds on 2=2 saying that it will be 9-10 weeks at the pace they are/were playing.

also can u belive how much mark vos / pav / harris shortstack rathole crew are up in the 500 1k games this month.

insane

you forgot to say 4. you think he's hot, dont ya?

reggi

wanna double the bet again

currently its my 1k vs ur 1200

double double gambool gambool?

durr ccurrently -24k over 7k hands

Keep us updated on this...

I'm up for more to make this more interesting, but my 1200 vs your 1k was when Durrrr was up 150k. Now that he's down 24k you'd have to lay me a decent price.

Overall this challenge has sucked balls. I'd be up for just calling off the bet if it's not going to end for months.

on the full tilt page

http://www.fulltiltpoker.com/durrrr-vs-antonius

antonius interview he complains that durr never wants to play and usualy quits early and he sounds pretty frustrated, trying to get it over before the wsop

agree it has sucked so far

hmm dont wana give a price when its break even 50bb difference with 43k hands to go., can leave it as is, just thought id ask

i would go up to my 5k vs ur 6k if u want to make it interesting

It would be stupid of me to give you 6/5 with him being down now, I have a terrible price now. I gave 6/5 because he was up 150k at the time.

With PA being up now I don't even think I would take 1:1 on anymore money. I would think 1 to 1.1 would be fair.