Common blackjack fallacies, Mostly related to card counting

Many people believe a lot of incorrect things when it comes to blackjack and card counting -- even people who often believe they know a lot about both. Here are some examples:


MYTH #1: If you get thrown out of a blackjack game for counting cards, it's probably because your "act" wasn't good enough.

FACT #1: Acts can only take you so far. Most people are pegged as counters not by the way they look or act, but rather by the way they play. A sharp pit boss can identify a counter no matter how good their act is. If you are caught, there probably wasn't much you could have done about it, except perhaps have left earlier.



MYTH #2: Single deck is better than double deck when it comes to card counting.

FACT #2: In theory, single deck is better. In practice, double deck is better. There are two reasons for this. First, casinos are often very paranoid that counters will hit their single deck games -- and for good reason! Therefore, they often make the penetration (how far they deal before shuffling) horrendous, and often you will only get out 2 hands if there are more than 3 people at the table. Furthermore, they watch these games like a hawk, so it is difficult to effectively play +EV blackjack without getting ejected. While double deck also attracts its fair share of pit boss paranoia, it's not nearly as bad. Furthermore, it plays better at a full or near-full table than single deck, and there are many double-deck games on the Vegas strip with decent or good penetration. Finally, most single deck games have been converted to "6:5" games (that is, blackjack pays you 6/5 of your bet instead of 3/2), which is terrible.


MYTH #3: It is impossible to count a 6-deck shoe.

FACT #3: 6-deck shoes, under the right conditions, are very beatable. Since you are only keeping track of a running count, it doesn't matter if you're playing 1, 2, or 6 decks. The only problem that can occur is if you forget the count, you are stuck until they reshuffle, which can take awhile. 6-deckers with good penetration (1.7 decks cut off or less) are very beatable, especially if the rules are good. Look for shoe games with the surrender option, as that is especially helpful in high-count situations where you have a big bet and are dealt something crappy like 16 versus a 10.


MYTH #4: It's important to make some intentionally stupid plays (or bet high occasionally during negative counts) for "deception" purposes.

FACT #4: Betting big during negative counts kills your overall edge, as does making intentionally stupid plays. Remember that, even as a counter, your edge over the casino is small. If you really want to do things for deception, keep it to decisions that are close anyway, or involve small bets. For example, one blackjack book suggests ALWAYS taking insurance (not just on high counts) versus the dealer's ace, with the rationale being that you are only giving up value on your low bets, and that you're doing the correct thing on your big bets. Personally, I don't do this, but I can see where that suggestion makes sense as a "cheap" form of cover. However, too often I have seen counters make tilty-type bad plays, and they explain it away as "just trying to show the pit boss I'm not a counter". If you make intentionally wrong bets/plays, the pit boss might let you stay, but not for the reason you think. It's not that you're fooling him, it's that you're actually not playing winning blackjack!


MYTH #5: If card counting, you need to fear the dealer and not piss him off. He might know what you're up to, and will report you if you don't keep him happy.

FACT #5: It's not the dealer's job in most cases to detect card counters. Even if it is, he will usually report you if he's instructed to do so, and won't otherwise. Besides, the pit boss needs to see for himself before ejecting you. He won't take the dealer's word for it without making his own judgment. If a dealer gets abusive to you, speak up. If you're counting, you're probably one of the bigger action players, and you have some clout. I once played at the Rio, and the dealer was particularly obnoxious and nasty for no reason. He was like this from the beginning, so it wasn't because I was counting cards, and he treated the other players at the table (who weren't counting) just as poorly. Finally I had enough of it. I told him, "You are either going to shut your mouth now and let us play cards in peace, or I am calling the pit boss over and telling him that this casino lost my action forever and it's your fault. Which one is it going to be?" He didn't say another word. Remember that these dealers make good money, so they don't want to lose their job!


MYTH #6: It's important to tip the dealer big in order to get good penetration.

FACT #6: Tipping usually has almost zero effect on the game. Penetration is usually set by the house, often to where the dealer uses a marking on the shoe to do it the same each time. Even when some leeway is granted to the dealers, they tend to give penetration randomly. That is, some dealers give good penetration and some lousy, regardless of how much or how little they're tipped. In RARE cases, dealers will do you favors in exchange for tips, but this happens so infrequently that it's only advisable to tip extra when you are CONVINCED this is the case. Otherwise, tip very little. Feel bad for the dealer? Don't. Dealers make 100k/year at places like Wynn and Bellagio, and they make nice mid-upper 5-figure salaries elsewhere, thanks to the generous tips left by everyone else. If you overtip, again your edge will vanish.


MYTH #7: If you don't count cards, you still should avoid the continuous shuffling machines.

FACT #7: If you don't count cards, a lot of things don't matter. Among them include how/when the dealer shuffles and how many decks are used. Ignore those factors. If you are a non-counter, the only thing you should do is look for a game with the best rules. That's almost always a shoe game (6 decks or more), and make sure that you can double on any 2 cards, double after split, and blackjack pays 3:2. Also look for surrender, resplit aces, and dealer-stands-soft-17 rules if possible. If you don't count, at least play in a game with the best rules, in order to lessen the casino's edge.


MYTH #8: Weird rule variants of blackjack, such as "dealer cards face up", "double after 3 cards or more", "switch cards if you are playing 2 hands", or other player-helping rule changes are always a good thing.

FACT #8: These rule variants always come with a price. Often that price is a very costly rule change on the other side, such as player loses all ties or blackjack pays even money. These games are usually highly -EV and should be avoided.

If you got caught counting cards at the Rio would they ban you from the WSOP?

If so, do you just not count at places where you play poker?

LOL counting cards isn't illegal. If you got kicked out of the Rio for counting cards they wouldn't be able to ban you from playing other games.

Yes they can. Once you're caught counting they tell you that you will be arrested for trespassing if you come back to their casino. Ask Andy Bloch about it...he got arrested at the golden nugget just for trying to eat dinner there.

Druff, you got any good storys about getting booted out of Casinos or obnoxious dealers/players you ran into. I remember reading once that it only took like a few hands before the security gave you the boot at the Frontier...was wondering if you had anymore storys like that.

They can ban you from the whole property, but most large casinos won't as long as it's your "first offense".

Here are the levels of banning that exist. They can do #1-8 at any time, even for the first offense. As I said, that usually doesn't happen, though. The only one they can't do is the final one (arrest) because that involves violating the trespass act.

LIGHTEST TO HEAVIEST:

1) Shuffling up. Dealer immediately shuffles, instead of waiting until the normal spot in the shoe to do so. This is to prevent card counters from taking advantage of a currently high count. This can be done in any casino. It should be illegal (because it hurts the non-counters, too), but somehow it isn't. Often a shuffle-up is followed by a great reduction in penetration (the point where the cut card is placed by the dealer to indicate shuffle).

2) One-handing. You are instructed to only play one hand at a time at the blackjack table, instead of 2 or more. They can do this in all casinos, and they are allowed to make it only apply to you and not others at the table.

3) Flat-betting. You are required to bet the same amount for the entire shoe. You can still play any other non-blackjack table game or slot machine without restriction. This cannot be done in Atlantic City.

4) Restriction to only continuous shufflers. You are only allowed to play at blackjack tables with continuous shuffling machines. You can still play any other non-blackjack table game or slot machine without restriction. This cannot be done in Atlantic City.

5) Blackjack Back-Off. You are told not to play blackjack anywhere in the casino. You can still play any other non-blackjack table game or slot machine without restriction. This cannot be done in Atlantic City. This is usually what is done when "first-offense" card counters are caught at most casinos, especially major Vegas ones.

6) Ejection. You are told to leave the premises, and escored out by security. You are not subject to arrest if you return in the future, but it is implied that you are not welcome. This cannot be done in Atlantic City. This often happens if you are caught counting for the second time.

7) Trespass act. You are told to leave the premises, and escored out by security. In addition, security reads you a statement that you will be considered trespassing if you ever set foot on the property again. Often you are banned from the company's other properties, as well, which is often stated as the trespass act is being read. This cannot be done in Atlantic City. This often happens if you are caught counting for the second time, and will almost always happen if caught counting after being ejected for it in the past.

8) Detention. You are detained in the back room for questioning. This should never be done to a card counter, since it is not illegal, unless he has violated the trespassing act. Still, this happens sometimes. Always resist being backroomed, as counters have been intimidated and even beaten up at times. This cannot be done in Atlantic City, unless actual cheating (not counting) is strongly suspected and can be proven.

9) Arrest. This can only occur if you violated the trespassing act. You are detained by security and arrested for trespassing, a misdemeanor. This cannot be done in Atlantic City, unless you were kicked out for reasons other than counting.



Which ones have I experienced? #1, #2, #4, #5, #6, and #7.

Why can't Atlantic City do anything but #1 and #2? There was a landmark court case a number of years ago, where it was made illegal to eject card counters. All they can do is either shuffle up on you or restrict you to one hand.

ive had #1 happen a few times ,as well as whispers/phone calls going on in the pit. i never stay long after

Oh, another fallacy...


MYTH #9: If you get kicked out of a casino for card counting, you're obviously a winning blackjack player.

FACT #9: Many pit bosses know the rough signs of a card counter, and don't watch closely enough to see if you're truly a +EV player. Of course, getting kicked out of MANY places is a good sign. However, the only way to really know if you're playing a winning blackjack game is to play a whole lot of it and honestly assess your results. Keep in mind, though, that the edge is small and the game is swingy, so you can be a -EV player who is up overall, or a +EV player who is down overall. That will flatten out over time. After you get a whole lot of sessions in, you should be showing a profit. If you're not, something might be wrong. Don't just blame luck!

lol so if you are an unknown card counter, ac is the place for you.

ive never seen a shuffle up before, that would be funny.

druff,
do you use the simple system espoused in 'bringing down the house?' i think its a simple +1, -1.

Yes, you're referring to a balanced high-low count, and that's what I use.

I do sometimes supplement it with a separate count of aces (more useful at double deck), but sometimes I'm not in the mood to think so much, so in those cases I won't do it.

I play poker for a living, and blackjack is more of a fun diversion where I can gamble and still know I am +EV in the long run. If I'm not in the mood to count aces, and I feel it will take away the fun of the game, I won't do it.

Why count aces? The ace represents a lot of your edge in blackjack, because you get paid 3:2 for blackjacks while the dealer only makes even money. This means that if you and the dealer could simply trade blackjacks back and forth all day (you get one this hand, he gets one the next hand, etc.), you would make a fortune. Therefore, when a disproportionate number of aces remain in the deck, your chances of getting blackjack are a lot higher, and therefore your edge is a good deal higher, so you should bet even bigger than the count itself might lead you to.

Also, counting aces makes you more aware of how many tens remain in the deck. If the count is 0, but if there are a lot of aces already out (comapred to expectation), that means the count is actually high when it comes to tens. This can influence your play in marginal situations such as what to do with a 16 versus a dealer's 10 (you would stand here), etc.

not sure if you read barry g's book but he puts in it a stupidly simple strategy to playing black jack or other "50/50" games. say you lose your first hand, so then you bet what you lost plus a little more and eventually you'll win a hand and still have a profit. is this feasible or is the max bet on the table going to kill you if you drop like 5 hands in a row

His explanation of the martingale system was meant to decry it as illogical thinking. As he points out, the times you lose a lot of money trying to win one bet will outweigh the many times you win a bet.

Exactly. What you just described, syphon, was the Martingale system, and it is -EV in the long run. In fact, it will lead to quick financial ruin when you finally hit that improbable losing streak. The only way it could work is if you had a literally unlimited bankroll and the casino would let you bet as much as you want per hand. In such a case, you could overcome any losing streak, no matter how bad, by just repeatedly doubling your last bet until you win. However, since nobody has an unlimited roll, and since no casino will let you bet unlimited amounts, you will either go bust or run into the table/house maximum during a bad losing streak, at which point you're screwed.

The Oklahoma BJ thread reminded me....How do you decide on bet sizes when counting? How do table max's affect it? Do you just have a simple low bet and a high bet? Or do you gradually increase bets as the deck improves? What kind of bet sizing subterfuge do you utilize to hide that youre counting?

I had #1 occur on me when I sat down with my $25 match play at the trop. Pitboss looked me over for a few seconds (I thought she was wondering whether to card me) instead she tells the dealer to shuffle the shoe. LOL I need a "I look dumb" disguise.

I bought a book on card counting and excitedly rushed to the nearest Lousiana casino to try my skills. Backwater Lake Charles,La casino that I felt that was not verfy sophisticated, at to add to that they knew me as a regular poker, blackjack and craps player. I consistantly won money but the bankroll I was using (around 15k) limited my betting size to the point where I could only win a small amount of money. It also made Blackjack VERY unenjoyable as it was work, and I had to concentrate throughout. It was a miserable experience and after I won at blackjack I would often donk off money at craps on the way out just to have some enjoyment. I read the part of the book on money management and learned my bankroll needed to be around 250 k to win the kind of money I wanted to win per hour. This would alos put me ina situation where a bad streak could easily wipe out 200k and I was supposed to smile and win it back with remaining 50k. As maintaining a 200k bankroll for cardcounting is impossible, the card counting ended there. What are anyone's thoughts on cardcounting bankroll management?

ive probably played more hands of blackjack than almost anyone on this board and it is possible to grind out a small steady profit but generally i would recommend the same as druff said which is basically use it as a break from poker and learn it especially if you are going to be playing blackjack anyway.

the first few times you play it does seem hard work because you are concentrating so much.
but after awhile it does come as second nature.

if i lived in vegas where there is alot of options i would probably play it alot but there is only 1 casino in my state and its not worth it anymore for me personally

It's true that the bankroll requirements for blackjack are rather high compared to your expected earning rate, due to its high variance and low edge.

That's why I wouldn't suggest anyone play blackjack professionally anymore. The casino surveillance/pit crew is too smart, and you'll never get away with it for long enough to make it a viable career.

What I tend to do is play irregularly, so nobody gets too used to seeing me. I'll play a bunch for a few days, then not play at all for a month. I'll also spread my action throughout as many casinos as possible (without it becoming a huge pain in the ass or playing in bad games). Obviously, as Phantom mentioned, it becomes quite tough when you live near just one casino!

I have always felt that the main point of learning to card count is so you can have a degenerate gambling diversion from poker that doesn't require losing in the long run. Unless it's for really low stakes, I just can't enjoy gambling if I know the house will have my money when it's all said and done. By learning how to play winning blackjack, I can still gamble in the pits and add some extra winnings onto my year-end poker totals.

Also, let me say one thing that you MUST keep in mind:

If you have the tendency to tilt, DO NOT PLAY BLACKJACK.

Card counting is serious business, and you have to play relatively close to perfectly to be +EV in the game. You can make small mistakes and still be a positive-expectation player, but big mistakes will kill any edge you might have had! For example, if you are spreading 50-300, and you slam a $300 tilt bet during a negative count, that is a BIG MISTAKE!

Of all the self-proclaimed "card counters" I have played blackjack with, VERY FEW -- by far the minority -- wree winning players, in my opinion. I don't bother to even tell them, because then it becomes a battle of egos, and I don't feel like getting into that crap. However, you need to serious assess your game. One way to do it is to play with another counter (who you know doesn't tilt or screw up) and see how often your bets correlate with his. If you depart more than a little bit from what he's doing, you're probably a -EV player.

I don't think they gave a shit about a $25 match play.

Had you come over and slammed down hundreds o