Draws in Limit Hold 'Em, Don't be stupid like this guy

Observe the following irritating hand history:

PokerStars Game #21939274373: Hold'em Limit ($50/$100) - 2008/11/11 1:46:40 ET
Table 'Ilos III' 10-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: harpua_4096 ($1044 in chips)
Seat 2: Pkt_2 ($2845 in chips)
Seat 3: liberace ($2144 in chips)
Seat 4: Tryptamean ($3784 in chips)
Seat 5: Vandiesel ($3510 in chips)
Seat 6: DuckU ($5122 in chips)
Seat 7: PokerSnoopy ($2616 in chips)
Seat 8: Dan Druff ($1398 in chips)
Seat 9: AffleckKGB ($1633 in chips)
Seat 10: PokerJ ($1729 in chips)
AffleckKGB: posts small blind $25
PokerJ: posts big blind $50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Dan Druff [Ac As]
harpua_4096: raises $50 to $100
Pkt_2: folds
liberace: calls $100
Tryptamean: folds
Vandiesel: folds
DuckU: folds
PokerSnoopy: folds
Dan Druff: raises $50 to $150
AffleckKGB: folds
PokerJ: folds
harpua_4096: calls $50
liberace: calls $50
*** FLOP *** [2h Qc Kc]
harpua_4096: bets $50
liberace: folds
Dan Druff: raises $50 to $100
harpua_4096: calls $50
*** TURN *** [2h Qc Kc] [Qd]
harpua_4096: checks
Dan Druff: bets $100
harpua_4096: raises $100 to $200
Dan Druff: calls $100
*** RIVER *** [2h Qc Kc Qd] [7c]
harpua_4096: bets $100
Dan Druff: calls $100
*** SHOW DOWN ***
harpua_4096: shows [Jc 9c] (a flush, King high)
Dan Druff: shows [Ac As] (two pair, Aces and Queens)
harpua_4096 collected $1322 from pot
Dan Druff said, "good job"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $1325 | Rake $3
Board [2h Qc Kc Qd 7c]
Seat 1: harpua_4096 showed [Jc 9c] and won ($1322) with a flush, King high
Seat 2: Pkt_2 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: liberace folded on the Flop
Seat 4: Tryptamean folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: Vandiesel folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: DuckU folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: PokerSnoopy folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: Dan Druff (button) showed [Ac As] and lost with two pair, Aces and Queens
Seat 9: AffleckKGB (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 10: PokerJ (big blind) folded before Flop


Let's take a look at this one.

harpua flopped a very big draw, though he's still an underdog against any made hand.

I don't blame him for testing the waters with a bet on the flop, as he could either take down the pot without needing to hit, or provide deception that he's on a draw and not a made hand.

However, once I raise him on the flop, it should be very clear that I'm not going anywhere no matter what. This is limit hold 'em, so nobody is getting moved off of top pair or better in a heads up pot. I 3-bet pre-flop, then raised his bet on the flop on a KQx board. Obviously I'm seeing the showdown.

The worst occurs on the turn. He check-raises, representing as if he has trip queens or better. While this might be a clever move in NL, in limit it's an epic fail, because all you're going to do is cost yourself more money to draw. Nobody with a king or better is laying their hand down at this point. In addition, he could be drawing nearly dead if I hold KQ, KK, or QQ.

He then hits the river and feels like a genius (thanks, Riverstars!)

g
a
y

But the fact remains that this guy got over-excited about his big draw, and charged himself the max out of position when he was either behind or drawing to one out (if I had a boat already).

Remember in limit hold 'em, you should tone down the aggression with draws out of position UNLESS you believe such aggression can make your opponent fold. In this case, it was clear that wasn't happening.

The one exception to this is where you have a draw that's a favorite to hit. For example...

You have 7h8h.

Flop is 5h6dQh.

Here you are better than even money to hit at some point, and you are a favorite over most hands (even AA). Therefore, it's not wrong to put in a lot of bets on the flop, representing a made hand and sometimes getting extra action when you do hit. However, if you miss the turn, you should slow down, never putting in another raise unless you have hit.

Good post. Do you think betting out on the flop and risk scaring away the third guy is better than just check-calling? Also, how about his preflop play? J9s utg in a (semi?)tough 10-handed game is an instafold, yes?

Why wouldn't u reraise the turn?

I wouldnt rr him on the turn. His raise screams queen to me especially after he leads flop gets raise then flat calls. Then he chk raises turn

Well, it is full ring so that is possible. The only thing that I don't see that possible is if he had Q/x, i see him 3betting the flop and leading the turn..or is that too aggressive of a line for villian?

Without being result oriented, I still think 3betting turn is correct play.

He's not a dog against any made hand. Also, just b/c you raise flop means you aren't going anywhere? So lets say you have 10J, you wouldn't raise flop there?

Also,

:standard

oops

I love when people comment on limit holdem when they have no clue. Three betting the turn is close to suicide. Also he didn't play the hand that badly besides preflop, I wouldn't have played my hand post flop like he did but I don't think it is that bad.

Unlikely for me to have JT given that I 3-bet his UTG raise in a full ring game.

He's a dog to any pair of queens or better. While it is possible I am raising the flop against him with something like TT or 99, I am much more likely to have a hand that I won't lay down if I'm still betting the turn, even if it's 99 or TT. Also, once he misses the turn, he is a dog to any pair.

This is just a dumb move. He's highly unlikely to get me to lay my hand down, and he's just charging himself more money. Also, he is drawing to 1 out if I have QQ, KK, or QK (and obviously will be stuck paying for the reraise when I 3-bet him).

It is always best to keep the pot small with drawing hands out of position, unless you think there's a decent chance your opponent will lay his hand down.

For those asking why I didn't 3-bet the turn, consider the action. He called my 3-bet pre-flop, then abruptly bet out on the flop of QKx with two clubs. An out-of-position flop bet-out like that usually indicates one of three things: a mediocre hand that the player feels uncomfortable with (such as middle or bottom pair), a draw, or a monster. I raised him on the flop, but he check-raised the turn when the middle card paired the board. That made it far more likely he either flopped a monster or hit trips on the turn. Either way, re-raising would be stupid at that point.

reraising the turn is probably a winning play long term but i dont have the testicles for it.

its a great card to bluff at tho for villain. image dependent of course, but TT and down could fold there, and even if he is up against a monster like AQ he has redraws.

so even with you raising the flop druff, i dont think youve stated unequivocally that youre not going anywhere. any mid pair raises the flop as well in an effort to price out a lonely Q, JT, XcXc, (if not on 4th st then when he fires his last barrel on the river) so he has a pretty solid case to be made for playing it exactly like he did. in fact, against 33-88 he has what, 18 outs or some crazy shit.

so yeah site=joke, no argument there, but i think the pot equity he gets from making 33-88, clubs, etc fold either on the turn or to his final barrel on a blank river justify his play and is common to the point of standard these days.

You cannot re-raise that turn. Why? Because he's not playing his hand like he has a draw at that point, which narrows it down to either flopped monster (bad) or turned trips (also bad). If a blank hit the turn and he check-raised, I would have considered re-raising, but even that's not automatic. With the queen, no way.

You are putting it too likely that I would have 33-88, JT, or two non-pair clubs in that spot. The way I played it pre-flop (3-betting UTG raiser) and on the flop (raising an out-of-position bet out on a QKx board) makes it far more likely that I have AQ or better. It's not IMPOSSIBLE that I have a hand that could fold the turn, but it's much more likely that I'm not folding under any circumstances, which makes his check-raise from behind on the turn stupid. In addition, as I said, I could easily have QQ, KQ, or KK in that spot, and then he's really in hot water with just 1 out.

It's much wiser to save your "moves" for times your opponent appears weak and is likely to fold. This is not one of those times.

If you really want to play this hand aggressively and disguise what you have, the right time for aggression is ON THE FLOP. Why? Because prior to the board pairing on the turn, you likely have 12 clean outs (including one being a straight flush) on the flop. While you are not a favorite to make either the straight or the flush, you are not that much of a dog. Therefore, check-raising the flop and then capping a 3-bet will represent a made hand, and you'll get extra money on the turn or river if you manage to hit your flush or straight, because nobody will see it coming. If you do this, however, you need to slow down on the turn if you've missed, because your odds of making your hand are now cut in half. When I say "slow down", I mean still bet, but just call a raise.

This guy's move on the turn was stupid for two reasons. Not only was I unlikely to lay down my hand (and he was a big dog at this point), but the board paired, leaving him with a possible 1-out situation.

Again, this isn't NL. You need to save the moves for when your opponent is weak and not try to force "tight laydowns", because people hate making such laydowns in limit -- even good hand-readers.

In short, being a successful limit player means you do the following:

1) Only put in extra money from behind if you think it will get your opponent to fold (i.e. he appears weak)
2) Extract the most money when ahead
3) Pay the least amount possible for draws when your opponent is ahead of you
4) Force out hands that can bad beat you when the pot gets big early

What you should NOT do is try to make moves to attempt to run people off good hands, because you will be unsuccessful and cost yourself a lot of money in the long run. If knocking people off top pair is your thing, play NL.

This is a pretty standard hand and I am not sure why there is even a thread.

Not standard at all. Well, at least not on the other guy's end.

Unless you think there is a fair chance the other guy will fold, you should never check-raise a draw out of position on the turn, especially with the board paired.

The way the hand played out, it looked more likely I would 3-bet him there than ever fold.

That's something else I haven't mentioned. If I had the Q, he would be getting 3-bet every time, and there was a decent chance I'd have it, given my raise on the flop (AQ was quite possible for me to have).

turn raise by the draw in a 10 handed limit game is pretty bad, its clearly going to showdown as well explained in oP

I would never play his hand the way he did, but I am saying I have seen people over play draws countless times with no fold equity. It is standard in the fact that people have had the same type of situation happen to them numerous times. It is not standard in how the hand is supposed to be played.

he was obviously going for tilt equity, a little known concept rarely discussed in books. Works best on Asian women

tilt equity works full ring??

HU its the key to winning IMO

i'm not going to comment on the intelligence of either players, which seems to be your main argument, but if villain check/called on the turn and checked the river, would u fire another bet on the river? with AA i guess u would put in a value bet even with 3 clubs out there, but how about with something like a pair of kings? (personally i would autobet river to a check with anything kings up or better) for him it seems like checkraising river after hitting his draw would be much more profitable in the long run since it doesn't seem like ur folding after raising the flop (as u said).