*** Official Blackjack/Card Counting thread ***

Excellent question. I won't lie to you -- I used to wonder this myself. I don't have a definitive answer, as I wasn't the one who developed or calculated basic strategy rules. Here is my theory:

Basic strategy assumes a zero count going into the hand. Let's assume that, and let's assume you are playing heads up with the dealer.

If you're dealt a hard 16, your hand has no effect on the count (it has to be a zero-count hand). If the dealer shows a ten, then the count has just been decreased by 1. Therefore, the count would be negative if the hand started with a zero count, which is what we assume when playing basic strategy. Therefore, those devising basic strategy need to give advice for the negative count situation here, which is to hit hard 16 versus 10.

Conversely, let's look at hard 12 versus a 4. Hard 12 will usually INCREASE the count, and will never decrease it (except in very unusual situations where you draw multiple aces to get there). Furthermore, the dealer's 4 automatically increases the count by 1. Therefore, if hand started out with a zero count, as basic strategy assumes, now it is positive. Therefore, basic strategy must selelct the positive count option, which is to stand.

In reality, these are both very marginal plays as far as basic strategy is concerned. If you don't count cards, and you like to "go with your gut feeling" once in awhile, do it in these two cases, as the EV for hitting and standing in each of these cases is almost identical, given an unknown count.

a very good cover technique is to bring a basic strategy cheat sheet with you, and ask the dealer when you sit down if its okay to have it out for reference. Glance at it regularly and use your pointer finger from time to time in order to appear to be finding the right play.

Hey druff, my older brother is traveling with me again to Vegas and I am tired of him bitching about getting handled in random BlackJack games on the strip. He has zero pantience and discipline to play any holdem cash game although I can wrangle him into playing a tournament every now n then. So now I have taken it upon myself to do a little research for him to find the best Blackjack games on the strip for him to play on, he also plays VideoPoker...I stumbled accross VPFree which lists the best VideoPoker machines in LasVegas but I am coming up with a blank on good games on the strip for blackjack. I know that if you want a "good" game on the strip you are typicaly going to have to play ATLEAST $25 a hand since you'll never find a $10 double deck game on the strip. I have yet to come accross a casino that makes dealers stay on a soft 17 but 3 to 2 on Blackjack is definatly key I told him.

Do you know any specific rooms on the strip that offer a good greenchip blackjack game?

You don't need (or want) double deck if you can't reliably count cards. It sounds like your brother can't, so he should find a shoe game.

Right off the bat:

Properties to avoid-

1) Any Caesars/Harrahs property
2) Any small casino

I believe Bellagio and Mandalay Bay have the best green-chip shoe game. I think they have all the desired rules -- stand on soft 17, double any 2 cards, double after split, surrender, resplit aces, blackjack pays 3:2. Some may be continuous shuffle machines, but that's fine if he doesn't count.

Other properties to consider are Wynn, Treasure Island, and Mirage.

Tell your brother to use the surrender option if he has 16 versus a dealer's 9, T, or A, and if he has 15 versus a T or A. You can only do the surrender on your first 2 cards, and only after the dealer has checked for blackjack. Still, it's a nice thing to have.

Also, if he wants to make any "go with your gut" plays that contradict conventional strategy, he can do them in the following situations:

16 versus a dealer's 10
12 versus a dealer's 4
13 versus a dealer's 2

In the above three cases, it is almost identical statistically whether you hit or stand. Therefore, the "I feel it" type plays should be made in these cases, as the correct strategy can really go either way (unless you know the count).

I'll just throw this out there---generally speaking, the games available in vegas are vastly inferior to those available in other parts of the country. Sadly, I have not been to Tunica since the 2006 WPO, but the single deck games availabe in the casinos down there were the best I've ever seen. Even in the betting greens in the 'Shoe, there was little heat to be had. I've also seen excellent games in Minneapolis (though not at Canterbury Downs), and a variety of other Indian joints in that neck of the woods. And lest I forget the Washington state casinos, where spreading $5-$200 was no problem. Internationally, South Korea is absolutely incredible (5.25/6 pen and 1-30 spread was cool), though Macau and the Phillippines are horrible. Never made to Australia, but I'm sure somebody can comment on that. Finally, if you are ever in Okinawa (or if you are unlucky enough to draw military duty there) let me know, as I know of the finest BJ game on earth in one of the mafia joints there.

For roughly $15-$20 you can buy a single issue of Current Blackjack News, a monthly report of the rules, penetration, decks and number of tables for almost every legal blackjack game in Nevada. I believe you can get a copy in Los Vegas at either the Gamblers Bookstore , the Gamblers General Store, the offices of BJ21.com. BJ21.com is the site run by Sanford Wong, a famous blackjack player. That will give you a quick scouting report of the average pentration at each casino. You can buy it on line also at BJ21.com.

Once in the casino, you are right, judging penetration is something you must observe. For a shoe game, the penetration is set by a cut card which is placed in the pack right after the shuffle is done. Just look around for a shoe game with a lot of discards in the tray, you will know they will be shuffling soon. Most casinos have a no-mid shoe entry rule to prevent players from entering only positive count shoes (call backcounting and wonging in). So you can watch without much heat. If the card is placed too shallow, 2/3's of the pack, forget it--if closer to 75% that's acceptable, anything past 75% is nice. If the casino has games in progress you can look on for a while...but if the casino is pretty much empty, you will need to sit at a table, get them to shuffle up, and if the cut card is set at a bad place, play a few hands at the minimum then leave if you loose a few hands in a row and the count goes more than a few cards negative.

For hand held games (single or double deck) look at the discard tray to judge the penetration and watch before sitting down. Again, the no entry rule gives you an excuse to stand and watch. If the casino is slow, again, sit and play a few rounds betting the minimum before getting up because your cellphone just vibrated (or some other excuse).

If you are serious about learning to estimate penetration, get a few decks of cards and make a discard tray (you can cut up a shoe box to do that)- if you are really into styling, you can buy athentic cards at the Gamblers General Store and even discard trays and blackjack shoes there to practice counting. Then just practice estimating the number of cards in the discard tray.

Good first post.

Current Blackjack News is a very useful publication. I used to get it all the time. I should start subscribing again.

spammer

Druff, as it so happens, I used to play a little BJ myself. It's only double deck, yet I never hear about people being able to tell you what cards haven't been seen. This is obviously very useful information. Can you memorize cards? Can you shuffle track in 4 and 6 deck?

I'm not sure what you're asking.

If you're asking if it's possible to memorize every card that rolls out, no, that's not possible unless you're Rain Man.

Double deck is best due to the following factors:

1) Way less heat on it than single deck
2) You get a number of hands in, unlike single deck where they shuffle too soon (especially with multiple people at the table)
3) Positive counts almost always mean something, unlike shoe games where they only mean something if very high or near the end prior to shuffle

Keep in mind that you will get more heat at double deck than a shoe game, however.

Due to the advantages offered by a double-deck game, it is okay to play one with hit-on-soft-17, and even no double-after-split. Do NOT play double-deck games that restrict doubling to 9, 10, and 11. Also never play them if blackjack is worse than 3:2.

Avoid double deck games completely if you can't count cards, as shoe games tend to have better rules.

Advanced theory I don't want anyone to see anymore since there isn't going to be a discussion

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